MetService New Year’s forecast: South Island best bet as rain hits north

As the countdown to 2026 approaches, the South Island is emerging as one of the better places to be for New Year’s celebrations, as unsettled weather continues to affect much of the country.

From late Saturday morning, heavy rain is expected to hit Northland, Taranaki and Wellington, before spreading across other regions and moving northeast through the afternoon, according to MetService.

MetService meteorologist Silvia Martino said another round of wet weather is likely to approach from the north on Sunday, continuing into the days leading up to New Year’s Eve.

“Most places will see a bit of sunshine, but the next round of wet weather does start to come in from the north later on Sunday and in those days leading up to New Year’s,” Martino said.

“What we’re looking at is a big old low spinning out to the west of the country and bringing bands of rain over much of the country.

“South Island, West Coast, might be the place to be, but everyone else is looking like they will get rain on and off almost all the way through.”

However, there is some hope for northern areas closer to New Year’s Eve.

“There is a chance that as we get right in close to the evening of New Year’s Eve, things clear up a bit in the north of the North Island, so you might get lucky if you’re up there,” Martino said.

“But certainly, for a lot of us it’s going to be a damp few days.”

Martino also said cooler-than-average temperatures are expected across the South Island during this period.

We are expecting temperatures to remain a bit cooler than usual over the next week ❄️, especially for the east of the South Island where a south to southeast flow is expected to persist 🌬️, drawing up a cold airmass from the Southern Ocean 🌊

This will keep a definite chill in… pic.twitter.com/NQMttbJgwO

— MetService NZ (@MetService) December 25, 2025

“Certainly for the time of year, it’s looking quite cool across the South Island. So if people are out camping they might be feeling that,” she said.

“Overnight lows [are] getting down to 5 or 6C for some of those southern and inland South Island places.

“Might be noticeable if you’re in a tent for your festival weekend.”

In contrast, Martino said temperatures in the North Island are expected to remain around average for the time of year.

👋🌊 Hello warmer waters!

Sea surface temperatures have been rising over the last few months, and you can see the 20°C contour edging towards heading south.

Have you had a dip this summer? pic.twitter.com/p7XwyEXvKH

— NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) December 26, 2025

The forecast follows severe weather experienced yesterday when heavy rain swept across the country, prompting warnings for flooding and slips.

On Friday afternoon, parts of the eastern South Island were placed under a severe thunderstorm watch, including Canterbury High Country, North Otago, Central Otago, Dunedin, Clutha and Southland.

Popular holiday destinations such as Northland, Auckland, Great Barrier Island, the Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Rotorua were also under a severe thunderstorm watch during the afternoon and evening.