MetService forecast: Autumn chill, big swells for North Island this week

Unpredictable autumnal weather is here to stay, with more sun, cooler temperatures and big swells developing into “some risk” of wild conditions later in the week.

MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris told the Herald the sun will be returning after a wet Monday for parts of the North Island, bringing with it a respite from the cold.

“Broadly speaking, the weather looks to be more so on the settled side across the country. Winds sort of drop out, we have an area of high pressure moving in, so that’s generally going to mean settled weather.”

Most of the country will see some fine spells tomorrow, with Bay of Plenty, Wellington and the southern and eastern parts of the South Island set to be especially sunny.

The South Island will be bouncing back to some warmer temperatures as the start of the week’s cold front travels further up the country.

This is unlucky for residents of Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay, who should expect tomorrow to be cooler than normal, with some cloud.

Ata mārie
A cold front is currently in the upper South Island, resulting in cloudy, cold, and wet conditions ☁️☔ 🥶. It is heading to the lower North Island, 🔊 so if you are planning to go out, it is best to check the local weather at: https://t.co/Yjbq0jgaoz pic.twitter.com/zXTsGIVjUY

— MetService NZ (@MetService) March 8, 2026

Tomorrow, a low-pressure system off the coast of the North Island will bring strong easterlies to the top of the country.

Larger-than-usual waves will begin hitting the east coasts of Northland and stick around through Thursday, when the potential for drizzly conditions will worsen as the system gets closer to land.

“As we move into Thursday, we could see a little bit more rain spreading down across the North Island from that system, but current weather models have sort of different ideas about how far that wet weather extends,” Ferris said.

He said it is still unclear what path exactly the system will follow, but to prepare for the possibility of some weather extremities.

“It doesn’t bring a sort of high risk of severe weather, but there is some risk, so it’ll be something that we will definitely be keeping an eye on and that other people should as well.”

As a cold front moves up the country from the south and meets humid northerlies, Ferris said Kiwis can then expect “sort of pincer weather” going into the second half of the working week.

“It does look like we have high pressure returning as we move into the weekend, but I’m not going to promise picture-perfect weather for the weekend – people will need to just get through [the] end of the week and see how these systems evolve.”