Meningitis toll highest in years

Meningitis killed five children last month, prompting fears the $220 million Government vaccination campaign against the MeNZB epidemic strain has failed to deliver as promised.

The latest monthly death toll is the highest in nine years.

Anti-vaccination campaigners said analysis of Ministry of Health figures showed that north of the Bombay Hills, the vaccine for the epidemic strain, given to more than one million children, had an efficacy, or effectiveness, rate of only 9 per cent.

The data showed that for the six months to May 2006, there had been proportionately as many cases of the epidemic strain of the meningococcal disease in fully vaccinated children (1.1 per 100,000) as there had been in partially vaccinated and unvaccinated children (1.2 per 100,000).

Ministry of Health authorities rubbished the claims, and said that parents who immunised their children could have complete faith in the vaccine, which they said was 80 per cent effective.

There were 35 cases of meningococcal disease in July, 16 of them in greater Auckland, which was the highest monthly total since before children started getting their third vaccine dose. Five deaths is the highest monthly tally since June 1997.

Using the formula the ministry proposed before the vaccine was rolled out, the effectiveness for the past six months is only 9 per cent. However, officials have discarded this in favour of a statistical model which showed an efficacy rate of 80 per cent since the campaign began in 2004.

Ron Law, a risk and policy analyst and former ministry consultant, is calling for a Royal Commission of Inquiry into what he called "the manipulation of science to justify a medical experiment involving more than one million children". He said if the vaccine was 80 per cent effective, the number of unvaccinated children with the disease would be far higher.

In the six months to May, there were five cases of the epidemic strain in under-20-year-olds in the Counties Manukau, Auckland, Waitemata and Northland district health board areas - the most high-risk areas targeted by the vaccination campaign.

Only 81,030 children in the northern region were unvaccinated; 438,000 had received all three jabs. Four of the children with the disease were fully vaccinated and one was unvaccinated, which Law said showed the vaccine was not having the promised effect.

Dr Jane O'Hallahan, head of the Government's meningococcal B programme, acknowledged the accuracy of the data, but dismissed Law's analysis as "science fiction".

Instead, she pointed to an international expert panel peer review which said the vaccine had an 80 per cent efficacy. She said the study showed unvaccinated children were five times more likely to develop the disease.

"It's not 100 per cent effective, no vaccine is, but it's the best we've got. There is no room for complacency, the strain is still in New Zealand and looking for vulnerable hosts."

O'Hallahan disputed Law's analysis and said the formula used to calculate the 9 per cent figure was outdated.

In the original Ministry proposal, the effectiveness study was to be completed by Auckland University researchers, led by Professor Diana Lennon. But she was forced to abandon her study in March, as so few children had caught the illness.

The Starship Hospital paediatrician and Auckland University lecturer said the epidemic was waning naturally. The decline had coincided with the vaccine campaign, so no one would know if the vaccine had worked.

After the failure of the case control study, Auckland University proposed a regional review following vaccination, to determine its effectiveness. However, the study contract was awarded to Victoria University in Wellington.

Dr Richard Arnold, head of the study team, said the preliminary results showed there was a five-fold reduction in disease rates among fully vaccinated New Zealanders.

O'Hallahan said that study used a statistical model which separated the effects of the vaccine from the natural progression of the epidemic.

Law said deaths from all meningococcal strains, not just the epidemic strain, had been used to scare parents into vaccinating 1.15 million children.

Since the start of the epidemic in 1991, there have been more than 5900 cases of meningococcal disease and 239 deaths. Law and co-researcher Barbara Sumner-Burstyn found that less than half were confirmed as being the strain the vaccine targets.

Since then, the Health Ministry has admitted 20 fully vaccinated children have developed the MeNZB strain.

Shots in the dark?

The meningococcal epidemic campaign finished in July.

* More than 1.15 million children have been immunised against the epidemic strain of the disease since the vaccination campaign started in July 2004.

* More than 3 million injections have been given, with the Ministry of Health saying 80 per cent of under-20s have completed all three doses with 80 per cent effectiveness.

* There were 35 cases of meningococcal disease last month, the highest monthly total since before children were fully vaccinated with three doses.

* Since 1991, there have been more than 5900 cases and 239 deaths from meningococcal disease. Less than half were confirmed as the epidemic strain.