Māori Party holds balance of power in new poll - Labour and National both rise

Parliament Buildings. Photo / Mark Mitchell

A new political poll has shown that for the first time since August 2022, the centre-right grouping of National and Act could not form a government - and with neither National nor Labour holding any form of majority the Māori Party holds the balance of power.

The latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll was released today, revealing Labour is holding a marginal lead - but National is close behind.

Labour rose 1.4 points on last month to 36.9 per cent while National is up 1.7 points to 36.5 per cent.

Act rose 0.2 points to 9.5 per cent and the Greens are up 1 point to 6.7 per cent.

Photo / April 2023 Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll

The combined projected seats total for the centre-right of 59 seats is down two on last month but remains marginally ahead of the combined total for the centre-left of 57 seats, which did not change.

“For the first time since August 2022, the centre-right cannot form a government on its own and neither bloc has a majority,” the Taxpayers’ Union said.

“This means that the Māori Party holds the balance of power. "

Other results revealed that Chris Hipkins’ net favourability dropped by five points to 28 per cent.

Both Christopher Luxon and David Seymour are on -6 per cent - the National leader down four points and his Act counterpart down seven points.

“Chris Hipkins also now has a negative net favourability rating with National voters of -5 per cent, down 18 points from 13 per cent last month,” said the union.

Image / April 2023 Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll

In terms of who the best economic manager is, National has improved its position over Labour with a 17-point lead - up three points on last month.

“They also have a 12-point lead on law and order and an 11-point lead on tackling inflation,” said the union.

“Labour maintains its lead of 11 points on leadership but diminishes its lead for health and on jobs.”

The poll was conducted from Sunday, April 2 to Wednesday, April 5.

The sample size was 1000 eligible New Zealand voters: 800 by phone and 200 by online panel.

The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 15,000 nationwide phone numbers.