Under our MMP electoral system, it is unlikely that one major party will govern without the support of at least one minor party. In Germany, since MMP was introduced 56 years ago, it has happened only once.
To secure absolute power, either Labour or National would need to secure about
49 per cent of the total party vote, making allowance for votes wasted on small parties that do not reach the 5 per cent threshold or secure one electorate seat. Given the trend of opinion polls, this will not happen this year.
If you are thinking of voting for a minor party, therefore, your vote could be crucial in determining the character of the next government.
The next government will be either a coalition of one major party with one or more minor parties, such as we had between National and NZ First for the 1996-1998 term, or a minority government, where a major party governs with the help of one or more minor parties, whether in coalition or not.
This is what we have had since 2002. Labour has led a government with one minor party in coalition, Progressive, and with the non-coalition support of United Future, and sometimes the Greens or NZ First.
The key difference between a coalition government and a minority government is that minor party members in a coalition hold cabinet office, such as Progressive's Jim Anderton.
Neither form of government guarantees either stability or instability, since this depends on the calibre of the politicians involved, not the system.
You may feel happy to vote for one of the two major parties with their complete menus of policies. At the 2002 election, about 62 per cent of voters did this. Opinion polls indicate that about 82 per cent are planning to do so this time.
The big difference may be because Labour's re-election in 2002 seemed inevitable and more than a third of voters felt free to exercise choice among the minor parties and, perhaps, to deny Labour absolute power.
This year, while support for Labour appears steady, National's demonstration of an alternative seems to be gathering the votes of non-Labour voters who chose NZ First, Act or United Future in 2002.
If present trends continue, about 20 per cent of voters will choose a minor party on September 17. Only NZ First and the Greens look able to top the 5 per cent threshold, but not by much and between them would account for no more than about 12 per cent of the vote.
The other 8 per cent would go to the other minor parties. Progressive and United Future would gain seats because both leaders, Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne, are almost certain to retain their electorates.
Although winning perhaps barely 2 per cent of the party vote, the new Maori Party may win between three and five of the seven separate Maori electorates. The resulting overhang would increase the size of Parliament for the next term, meaning the government would need control of, not 61 seats in the House, but 62.
Unless Epsom voters decide to endorse Rodney Hide as their electorate MP, Act is set to disappear.
Minor parties are focused on a smaller range of policies, appealing to particular interest groups and, in supporting a major party to form a government, will be able to gain traction. For example, immigration policy in the case of NZ First, or environmental protection in the case of the Greens.
This is not the tail wagging the dog but important sectional interests being represented at the highest policy level. The minor party may also be able to apply the brakes to the major party's more drastic proposals, helping to keep the major party honest.
BECAUSE minor parties help to form government and modify some policy applications, shouldn't we know which coalition options are available before the election? The short answer is, yes. This is what happens in coalition electoral systems elsewhere.
So what is the situation here? Labour is joined at the hip to Progressive (Jim Anderton) and has clearly indicated it could work with the Greens in coalition. It has also indicated it could continue to work with United Future in some way, but is lukewarm toward NZ First.
National has indicated it could work with Act (if it survives), United Future and perhaps NZ First. Helen Clark and Don Brash have each stated they could not work with Winston Peters as deputy prime minister.
Neither Labour nor National has made it clear whether they would prefer to be in a coalition or to continue with the kind of minority government we have had for the past six years, relying on minor parties to support them on votes of confidence and money supply.
This works if the major party is a good manager and the minor party is reliable. But it seems as if some minor parties are keener to have cabinet posts in a formal coalition.
So what of the minor parties? United Future has said it will support whichever of the major parties obtains the most seats in Parliament.
Jim Anderton's Progressives would stay with Labour in coalition. The Greens have stated they would go into coalition with Labour but never with National. Act would only support National but in what form is unclear.
Winston Peters will sit on the cross benches and offer a confidence and supply-type arrangement to the party with the most seats. The Maori Party will not support National, given its intention to abolish their seats, but would consult its supporters after the election about what else to do.
So what unequivocal minor party choices do you have? If you want a left-wing government but pulled further left in some policy areas and moderated in others, then you would vote for the Greens, knowing they will support Labour.
If you want a right-wing government pulled further right then you would vote for Act, knowing they will support National.
In the end, you may choose simply to vote for either Labour or National. But both major parties will definitely need coalition support and if you do vote for a small party, it is surely better to vote for one whose coalition intentions are clear.
A final word of warning - voting advice from any political party or pressure group, including the Exclusive Brethren, is designed to encourage you to vote the way they think you should, not to consider all the voting choices open to you.
Make up your own mind!
* Philip Temple is a Dunedin writer who was given a Wallace Award in 1998 by the Electoral Commission for his outstanding contribution to electoral matters.
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