Majority say population high enough

By CLAIRE TREVETT

Nearly a year after the population topped four million, a Herald poll shows most are happy for it to stop right there.

A Herald-DigiPoll of 800 people asking whether New Zealand needed a larger population revealed 60 per cent of people against it.

Those under 40, women and Maori were more vehemently opposed, and the only group to strongly support a larger population were Asians - two-thirds saying the country needed more people.

Seventy per cent of those under 40 thought New Zealand had enough people.

In comparison, just 48 per cent of those aged over 65 held the same view.

Voters across the political spectrum were united in their opinions, with more than half supporters of every party saying no to more people.

But there was slightly stronger support for a higher population among right-wing voters. Forty-five per cent of Act voters and 44 per cent of National said it should be bigger.

By comparison, a third of Labour voters and a quarter of Greens supporters thought so.

Waikato University population expert Professor Richard Bedford said he was not surprised Maori did not back population increase.

"As tangata whenua they probably perceive that the more non-Maori we have in New Zealand, the greater the difficulty for Maori to reclaim their lands and heritage over time."

He said he could not explain why young people were so keen on a static population.

"I often ask my children, in their 20s, and they reflect that view as well. I think it is partly related to the fact many in that generation value the lifestyle we have in New Zealand and don't want to see it transformed by having a substantially larger population."

Over half the population (54 per cent) said New Zealand was admitting too many immigrants.

Although 72 per cent of the Greens thought the population should not be increased, only 53 per cent thought too many immigrants were being allowed in.

People above 40, Maori and Pacific Islanders and New Zealand First voters were the strongest anti-immigration groups.

Two-thirds of Maori said too many immigrants were coming in, compared to just over a half of the Europeans surveyed, and a third of the Asians.

There was a huge split in answers to questions about levels of immigration from Asia and South Africa.

In the 2001 census, nearly 15,000 people identified themselves as South African. There were almost 240,000 people of Asian ethnicity.

The poll revealed antipathy for further Asian immigration. About 52 per cent said there were too many Asian immigrants, including nearly 40 per cent of Asians polled.

Again, people aged over 40, Maori and Pacific Islanders and New Zealand First voters were more against Asian immigration than others.

South Africans were given an easier ride, with only 20 per cent saying there were too many of them here.

Even NZ First voters were happy to have more South Africans - 61 per cent said New Zealand did not have too many.

Professor Bedford said many of those polled would have considered the Asian students from overseas in deciding on the answer, unable to differentiate whether Asian people walking down the street were students or the children of third-generation immigrants.

By comparison, people could not pick a South African unless speaking to them.

He said any significant group within an immigration wave was singled out.

"So I'm not surprised people are saying there are too many, just as in the 1970s they were saying there were too many Pacific Islanders and Poms."

Those who wanted New Zealand to remain the size it was might just be lucky.

Professor Bedford said New Zealand's population was unlikely to reach five million.

Over the past 100 years, births and deaths drove population growth.

"It is only in recent years that immigration has become a more important driver of growth."

Statistics New Zealand projects the population will peak in 2046 at 4.8 million before dropping back to 4.4 million by 2101.