Mai Chen: Royal baby and earthquakes trigger two seismic shifts

The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge with their new born son HRH Prince George Alexander Louis of Cambridge. Photo / Getty Images

The Prime Minister and his three immediate predecessors are on record as saying it is "inevitable" that New Zealand will become a republic. I suggest that the birth this week of HRH Prince George of Cambridge makes it less inevitable, and that this has constitutional ramifications for New Zealand.

I think the huge public interest in the royal birth will translate into ongoing support for New Zealand as a constitutional monarchy. When this is combined with the strong support for the monarchy shown at the time of the royal wedding in April 2011, it means republicans will have their work cut out to make the "inevitable" happen.

The one thing the public agrees about on constitutional reform is that it should happen only after a majority vote at a referendum. (The most recent example was the 57.77 per cent vote at the 2011 general election to retain MMP).

Opinion polls show that the support for republicanism averages around 35 to 40 per cent.

The cause is further hampered by the need for any referendum to address difficult constitutional issues about how we would become a republic, and what form it would take.

Would a president be appointed by Parliament or elected by the public? Or could we simply make the current Governor-General our head of state?

But would the new head of state have a ceremonial or political role, and should any other constitutional changes, such as the adoption of a supreme constitution and changing the legal status of the Treaty of Waitangi, accompany the move to becoming a republic?

The practical political need for a majority at a plebiscite to authorise major constitutional reform makes the issue very simple.

No government is going to jeopardise political popularity by changing a system that has democratic legitimacy and embarking on new constitutional arrangements that are likely to be contentious and require a lengthy period of adjustment.

The royal baby has diverted some attention from the serious earthquakes that struck downtown Wellington.

The quakes serve as an important wake-up call for us in Auckland, which is built on a volcano field which is seismically active. In March this year Auckland had two shallow earthquakes, so we can't be complacent and assume that earthquakes happen only south of the Bombay Hills. New Zealand sits on the jittery edge of the Ring of Fire.

The Wellington tremors and the Canterbury earthquakes also emphasise the important working relationship between central and local government when natural disasters strike. Civil Defence Minister Nikki Kaye and Wellington Mayor Celia Wade-Brown both worked hard to get the city back on its feet this week.

Criticisms of the Christchurch Council's response to the Canterbury earthquakes, including its loss of accreditation for building consents this month, has also demonstrated the need for clear and effective leadership at the council level. These examples are especially important, as local body elections are to be held on October 12.

The Auckland Council, and our representatives on it, will be reminded that earthquake preparedness is one of their chief responsibilities.

Our laws enable local government to prepare for and deal with disasters. The Civil Defence Emergency Management Act gives local authorities broad powers to deal with emergencies. Section 12 of the act requires local authorities to set up civil defence emergency management groups.

These groups are empowered to respond to and manage the adverse effects of emergencies in their areas - which can include telling people to stay out of certain areas. This happened on Monday, when the Wellington Council told workers to stay at home, turning the city centre into a ghost town on one of the busiest days of the week.

As part of their disaster management, local authorities will also have to work with local businesses and employers to allow them to act lawfully in disasters.

The Employment Relations Act obliges employers to deal with their employees in good faith, communicating honestly with them about damage to premises or changes to work hours.

The Health and Safety in Employment Act also obliges employers to take all practicable steps to ensure the safety of their employees. Where a workplace is unsafe, the employer may be obliged to direct employees not to come to work.

So this week we have seen two seismic shifts - the royal baby has moved the timeline for a New Zealand republic further into the future, and the shaking in Wellington warns us against complacency in the face of a similar disaster in Auckland.

Mai Chen is a partner in Chen Palmer and adjunct professor at the University of Auckland business school