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Home / New Zealand

Little starting to show his pragmatic side

John Roughan
By John Roughan
Opinion Writer·NZ Herald·
24 Jul, 2015 05:00 PM5 mins to read

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Andrew Little's position on 90-day trials is a far cry from Labour's anguish and fury of five years ago. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Andrew Little's position on 90-day trials is a far cry from Labour's anguish and fury of five years ago. Photo / Mark Mitchell

John Roughan
Opinion by John Roughan
Former editorial writer and columnist, NZ Herald
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The Labour leader's comments on 90-day trials could be a sign the party is confronting the reality of taking the reins.

It is usually obvious when an opposition party seriously expects to be the next government. It starts coming to terms with decisions it previously detested. John Key once said, quietly, "We'll know Labour is serious when they keep the 90-day trials."

So my ears pricked up when a radio news bulletin last Friday reported Labour had done an about-face on the trials, but it told me nothing more. The Herald's Claire Trevett provided some context in her column from Parliament on Thursday.

Andrew Little had been at an Upper Hutt engineering plant, talking on a different subject, when he was asked what he would do about 90-day trials. He said they would stay with some changes to make them fairer. He wanted to assure his audience he understood the value of a period of immunity to claims of unfair dismissal. Not just to employers, he could have added. The trials probably open the door for people who would otherwise find it very hard to get a job.

It is not clear what Little means by making them fairer, any recourse to the Employment Court would defeat their purpose, but his position is a far cry from Labour's anguish and fury of five years ago.

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Nor is it yet clear whether Little's off-the-cuff answer in Upper Hutt is news to the rest of his party. But unlike his remark in similar circumstances a few months ago, that he would like to do something about working superannuitants who receive the pension as well as earning an income, this one was not quickly rescinded.

Commentators call these things a "u-turn", party activists a "sell-out", but it is probably wrong to assume these things are not done just for electoral safety. When the country is ready to change the government, an incoming party could probably be elected with a programme to undo much of what the previous government had done.

The reason they usually reconcile themselves to these things is, I suspect, the sobering effect of imminent responsibility. They know it is not in the country's interest to reverse very much.

We are approaching the point, a year into a government's third term, when Key became National's leader and set about endorsing just about all the Clark Government's initiatives. Little has had Labour's leadership since late last year and sometimes looks like he is seriously preparing to be Prime Minister, other times he looks uncertain.

No wonder really. When Key took over in 2007, National was already moving ahead in the polls. Labour right now is still a long way behind. It must be wondering whether anything will turn the tide.

A collapse of dairy prices for a second season, slower growth, a drop in business confidence, the Christchurch rebuild passing its peak, the Prime Minister's ponytail teasing ... nothing has made much difference. Not even the big sleeping issue of recent years: the scale of Chinese investment in Auckland real estate.

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When Labour played that card two weeks ago it would have hoped for a much greater lift than the single percentage point it gained in Colmar Brunton's poll for One News last week. The issue has backfired badly, not because the public is unconcerned that China's unleashed capital is putting house prices beyond the reach of average incomes, but because the subject puts Labour on the wrong side of a larger issue.

This week, its leader took aim at Key's campaign to change the flag. Again, it is the wrong issue for Labour. It is not our conservative party. It needs to be looking ahead. Everyone, I think, senses the direction we are going, even those who don't particularly like it. Colonialism is the past, globalism is where we're going.

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Globalism is the reason that even our conservative Government is reluctant to discourage foreign investment in housing. Key is probably more reluctant than any of his colleagues. He believes, more deeply than he can articulate, that closing any doors to the world would be disastrous for New Zealand.

His colleagues, and the country I think, have enormous confidence in his instincts. His ability to dominate public debate remains remarkable. We cannot turn on a radio these days without hearing that the housing problem is simple, we are just not building enough houses.

It would be that simple if everyone was content with one house. When rental property is the nation's most desired personal investment, building more houses will only feed the monster. But the myth persists even now that the Government is about to tax the demand for houses.

Its two-year capital gains tax leaves plenty for a new government to do. Labour could dare to abolish rent deductions too.

But if it does no more than discard backward opposition positions, Andrew Little may stand a better chance in his own particular trial for higher employment.

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