KEY POINTS:
Phil Goff's press conference on Monday with Dr Habibe Sarabi, the Governor of Afghanistan's Bamiyan province, attracted an usually large number of reporters to the Beehive.
It wasn't because of interest in New Zealand's provincial reconstruction team - but because two political polls over the weekend showed Labour and Prime Minister Helen Clark heading sharply south.
Questions on the poll took up only the last five minutes of a 30-minute press conference but it was significant nonetheless.
It was the first time in 12 years that the issue of the Labour Party leadership has been openly and legitimately discussed as a possible negative rather than an asset - the last time was when Clark saw off a coup attempt in 1996. Goff was the natural subject: he never says "no comment," and he is the most likely to become the next Labour leader if Labour loses the next election.
For his part he played it perfectly, confirming with conviction that Clark's leadership was perfectly safe, and saying the party had not wasted a second on "interfactional strife" - not that there were factions any longer.
That is not doubted. But Goff is odds-on favourite to lead the party in Opposition if Clark loses the election.
With Steve Maharey moving on at the election, the Left would console itself with the hope that Goff would be a stop-gap leader until the best prospect in the party's next generation emerged from the pack.
Being Opposition leader is one of the worst jobs in politics, especially up against a new Government enjoying a honeymoon with the public.
The leader has to have the skills to prevent the defeated party tearing itself apart - and this is where Goff would be weakest - be the toughest opponent to a Government that has just been given a mandate to do what it is doing, and have public appeal.
It is a job for the toughest. Few in Labour ranks could handle it well.
Clark could but there's no satisfaction in going backwards. Michael Cullen could but he would be yesterday's man. Annette King could but does not want it. Mallard would have been a rival to Goff had he not played fast and loose with his own reputation.
Lianne Dalziel revels more in backroom work than public profile these days.
The best the next generation could hope for under a Goff leadership would be as deputy.
David Cunliffe has ambition, is handling the front bench well, and has definite public appeal but his perceived arrogance makes him unpopular in his own caucus.
Maryan Street has ability but, with less than one term, very little political experience. However she may have a rapid rise owing to the thinning ranks of capable women in a party where gender balance is important.
Street fighter Clayton Cosgrove would be invaluable to the party in Opposition but does not have broad enough appeal to make it to the top two.
A return to power by Labour at the next election reduces the alternatives.
Clark could then hand over to a new leader (and Prime Minister) before the 2011 election. Again that could still be Goff if none of the new generation have scrubbed up well enough.
But by then Shane Jones, now in his first term, may have acquired some of the necessary communication skills and party political experience necessary to lead Labour.
The decision this week by Engineering Printing and Manufacturing Union national secretary Andrew Little not to seek a list place this election has put paid to what may have been a fast track to leadership.
It could still happen if he were to enter Parliament in 2011 - and if other leadership combinations had failed.
THE NEXT LABOUR LEADER
PHIL GOFF
Best bet since Maharey announced he was quitting and Mallard wrestled Henare in the corridors of Parliament.
ANNETTE KING
More respected in the caucus and as able as Goff, but colleagues know better than to ask. She would refuse. She has found love and will do nothing to compromise it.
AND THE NEXT GENERATION...
SHANE JONES
The perfect candidate on paper, expert in Maoritanga and Harvard-educated, but the first-termer is not experienced enough and not steeped in party culture.
DAVID CUNLIFFE
Has won over the public for his strong leadership in health but has still not won over his caucus, who have as little regard for him as they do for his ego. Could be deputy material.
CLAYTON COSGROVE
The Mike Moore acolyte has won respect from the Left of the party for his ability to put differences aside - but not that much respect.
DARREN HUGHES
Clever, witty and able but needs another six years under his belt to shake off the kid-brother image and show his serious side.
MARYAN STREET
A classic modern Labour MP - policy-driven feminist with a strong human rights bent - not as scary as she sounds. Could be an a contender for deputy to Goff.
DAVID PARKER
Bright, methodical, a details man but has too much of an academic approach to the job.
ANDREW LITTLE
Ruled himself out of Parliament next term but could do a Bob Hawke after 2011 if other leadership combinations have failed.
