National, United Future and Act would win 61 seats in a 124-seat Parliament, with Labour, Greens, and Mana gaining 60 seats. Neither coalition would run Government without the Maori Party's three seats.
This poll indicated New Zealand First would not be elected, even with the prospect of a lower party threshold of 4 per cent.
National's support remained relatively steady, but its support partners were losing popularity. It has been forced to defend a high unemployment rate and challenges to the country's environmental record.
Labour's conference was disrupted by MP David Cunliffe's refusal to pledge support to Mr Shearer, and a party rule change which made it easier for a candidate to launch a challenge for the leadership.
But Mr Shearer also gave a stirring speech at the event, and received unanimous support from his MPs three days later after taking a tough stance on Mr Cunliffe and calling an urgent caucus vote. He also made a major policy announcement, promising that the party would build 100,000 affordable homes in 10 years if elected.
Mr Shearer's popularity rose four points in the Colmar-Brunton poll to 15 per cent while Mr Key slipped three points to 39 per cent. This trend was echoed by the Reid Research survey.