Labour's lead cut to 4.3 points

National has virtually halved Labour's lead within a week, cutting a 9.3 point gap last week to 4.3 this week, according to the latest Herald DigiPoll survey.

A closer look at the poll points to extreme volatility, especially where the National vote is concerned.

The same trend was apparent in last week's results of the DigiPoll survey, which will now run weekly in the Herald until the election.

Polling for this survey began on Thursday last week and finished on Wednesday this week. In the segment taken before Monday's race-related speech of National leader Don Brash, Labour had stretched 10.9 points ahead of National to 46.8 per cent.

But in the segment taken after the speech in Whangarei on Monday, Labour had slumped and National was ahead of Labour by three points, on 43.2.

Taken overall, Labour is on 43.4 (down 1.9 on last week's poll), National is on 39.1 (up 3.1), New Zealand First 6.6 (up 0.5), Greens 5 (down 1.4), Act 2.1 (up 1.2), United Future 1.7 (up 0.4), Maori Party 1.2 (down 1), Progressives 0.1 (down 0.5), Destiny 0.4 (down 0.3), and Alliance 0.1.

Translated into seats in the House, Labour and the Progressives would be able to form a coalition with the Greens - who would just make it to Parliament by a whisker - or New Zealand First.

Act would disappear altogether but may be slightly heartened by a marked improvement in the second segment of this week's poll to 3.2 points.

On today's poll, National would not be able to form a government at all.

But other indicators are not positive for Labour either. Support for Helen Clark as preferred Prime Minister dropped 6.5 points to 52.8 per cent and support for Dr Brash increased 5.7 points to 34.8 per cent.

Support for New Zealand First leader Winston Peters was up 2.8 points to 9 per cent.

Asked if the Government was going in the right direction, 50.1 per cent said Yes (down 3.8 points) and 42 per cent said No (up 4.4).

DigiPoll director Gabriel Dekel said poll volatility was more pronounced in National's support. Labour has rarely dipped below 40 per cent in recent months.

National's polling has bounced around the low 30s to the early 40s.

"There is huge volatility at the moment and I think it will be like this until the last week," Dr Dekel said. "It is anyone's guess now who will win."

The 20-point advantage Labour had in the Auckland vote last week has gone, with Auckland support now almost reflecting Labour and National's overall support.


The party-vote percentages are of decided voters only. Of all respondents, 10.2 per cent refused to answer or did not know or said none.


* The poll of 1105 people was conducted between August 24 and 31 and has a margin of error of 2.9 per cent. Both segments of the polled are weighted as separate polls. The first segment, of 657 people, has a margin error of 3.8 per cent; the segment from Monday to Wednesday of 448 people has a margin of error of 4.6 per cent.