Labour's gamble doesn't pay off in polls

Labour leader Andrew Little defended using housing data that highlighted foreign ownership. Photo / John Borren

Labour's gamble in using real estate data to highlight Chinese property buyers in Auckland has so far not paid off in the polls - the party has lifted by just one point in the first poll since it released the figures.

Support for Labour in the One News Colmar Brunton was at 32 per cent, up one point since May. National was on 47 per cent, down one point. The Green Party was up three to 13 per cent and NZ First was steady on seven per cent.

The polling started on July 11 - the same day Labour's data was published in the Herald. Labour leader Andrew Little has defended using the figures after Labour was criticised for race-based politics. Support for Mr Little as preferred Prime Minister dropped by one point to eight per cent. Prime Minister John Key's support also dropped down to 40 per cent from 44 in May.

Some commentators said Labour was trying for the 'Orewa effect' - a reference to National's boost in the polls after former leader Don Brash speech against what he saw as preferential treatment for Maori in 2004. National lifted from 28 per cent to 45 per cent within two weeks of that speech.

Labour leader Andrew Little denied he was disappointed and believed it was too early for its overseas buyers campaign to have had an impact. He said New Zealanders liked to digest such issues before making up their minds about it. However, he believed it had resonated in Auckland.

The poll also showed optimism about the economic outlook had plummeted since May, likely driven by concern over low dairy prices, the dropping dollar and strife for Greece. Just 36 per cent said they were optimistic about the outlook - down from 45 per cent in the post-Budget poll in May. 41 per cent were pessimistic, up 10 points.

Labour used leaked real estate data to show 40 per cent of homebuyers in Auckland over a three month period had Chinese surnames. The analysis was based on 45 per cent of real estate sales in Auckland. Barfoot and Thompson last week sacked real estate agent Grant Hargrave for leaking confidential data to some political officials and media, but said it had not found any direct contact with the Labour Party. Mr Hargrave told the Herald last week he had not any contact with Labour over the data and did not know how the party got it.

The poll of 1000 eligible voters was taken from 11- 15 July and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 per cent.