Kerre McIvor: Todd Muller, Nikki Kaye and the new National

Todd Muller, the new National leader, with his deputy, Auckland MP Nikki Kaye. Photo / Dom Thomas

Opinion

COMMENT

On Friday morning, as National Party MPs arrived in Wellington to decide the fate of their leader, we spent three hours discussing the leadership coup on talkback.

For those who take an interest in politics, it was fun, speculating on what might happen when National met behind closed doors to decide whether the axe should fall on the incumbent Simon Bridges, or whether it would be the man who'd come out of nowhere, Todd Muller, who would carry the hopes and dreams of the party faithful into the next election.

Pronounced Muller like mulled wine, as I discovered. It seemed extraordinary to be discussing the leadership prospects of a man whose name nobody seemed to know how to pronounce. And while political wonks sat back at midday on Friday, placed their bets and passed the popcorn, it's a reminder that politics is a tough business.

These are people with feelings and it can't be pleasant to be told by your peers that you don't cut it. When Simon Bridges succeeded Bill English as the National Party leader, he seemed a good fit. Young, well, young-ish, bright, a family man – a text book Tory. But middle New Zealand didn't warm to him

Some pointed to his voice as being the problem but crikey, Helen Clark, John Key and Jacinda Ardern can mangle vowels and swallow consonants with the best of them.

The times he appeared on my radio show, to take calls from the punters, he was impressive. He had no idea what the subject of the next call would be and his grasp of policy and his recollection of facts and figures was extraordinary.

There were no flunkies there feeding him information – it was all recall. And the audience told me that they heard a different Simon to the one they saw on the television, the one who spoke in sound bites and played negative politics.

But ultimately, it wasn't enough and although Bridges' has done a good job of chairing the Epidemic Response Committee, savaging St Ashley Bloomfield was silly and counterproductive.

The polls showed National's and Bridges' approval ratings plummeting and the Nats lost their nerve. So Simon Bridges and Paula Bennett are gone and Todd Muller and Nikki Kaye are in.

Nikki Kaye is a smart, hard working, driven young woman and she will make an excellent deputy. Some of the blue rinse brigade will be clutching their pearls at the thought of a social liberal being in such a high-profile role but New Zealand has changed and Nikki Kaye represents the socially liberal, economically conservative cohort of New Zealand voters.

Those who know Todd Muller speak highly of him – they say he's a decent man, and in his first press conference, he came across as that, praising the Government's handling of the covid crisis, before questioning its ability to lead the economic recovery this country requires.

He says he believes he can lead National to victory in the upcoming election but he's got a hard job ahead of him. Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson have done an excellent job throughout this crisis, and although Todd Muller pointed out the lack of talent and depth in the coalition government, Ardern and Robertson don't seem to need anybody else.

It's very hard for a party to win enough votes to govern alone in this MMP environment and National has no political allies of substance it can call upon to form a coalition government – although Muller hasn't ruled out working with New Zealand First, unlike his predecessor.

And New Zealand voters very seldom chuck out a government after just one term.

Apparently, Muller has always had political ambitions and now he's one step away from fulfilling his mission. I can't help but think of that old saying though – be careful what you wish for because you might just get it.