Keeping LVRs dashes home dreams

Wellington couple Shannon Eydt and Nicholas Larsen say they have no hope of buying their first home in the city.

Reserve Bank says house prices could surge again

Yesterday's Reserve Bank decision to continue keeping a tight rein on residential lending has shattered the dreams of many would-be first-home buyers.

Shannon Eydt and Nicholas Larsen, for example, say they feel locked out of the housing market and are worried they will still be paying a mortgage into their 60s.

Ms Eydt says lending restrictions makes home ownership in Wellington, where they live, unachievable, despite their saving efforts, which include setting their KiwiSaver contributions at the highest threshold.

"We have concerns that we don't have that bit of security there," she said. "Our parents had houses by now and it's a little bit worrying thinking that we are going to still be paying a mortgage when we are into our 60s."

Ms Eydt, 26, an administrator, and Mr Larsen, 31, who works in aviation, had considered other forms of investment and moving to the South Island.

"At the moment we are both pretty locked into our jobs for the foreseeable future but something we have talked about [is] moving to the South Island," said Ms Eydt.

"We have gone down there to visit friends who own multiple properties and they're our age. Our rent is two of their mortgage payments."

Bruce Patten of LoanMarket calculated that at least 4500 New Zealanders who were poised to buy when the Reserve Bank's loan-to-value ratios (LVRs) come off would have been left disappointed by yesterday's news.

The Reserve Bank indicated that first-home buyers shut out of the market by restrictions on low-deposit mortgage lending would have to wait until inward migration numbers eased and new home building got into full swing.

Yesterday, bank governor Graeme Wheeler hailed them as a success in curbing house price inflation.

However, hopes that the bank would announce plans to remove the restrictions in yesterday's Financial Stability Report were dashed when Mr Wheeler said house prices could surge again, particularly in light of strong immigration flows. "Consequently, we do not consider it appropriate to ease the LVR speed limit at this time."

The bank said net permanent and long-term immigration continued to be strong, running at a record annual rate of 45,400 as of September.

Mr Wheeler told MPs yesterday that net inward migration had been consistently underestimated in forecasts and the bank was mindful that it might continue to be more of a factor than expected.

NZ Institute for Economic Research economist Shamubeel Eaqub said the bank had set out "demanding" criteria for the phase-out of the limits in yesterday's report.

"It feels like they're not going to remove these restrictions until there is very compelling evidence that the housing market is in good balance and that probably requires housing supply to be much stronger in Auckland. I can't see how that's going to happen quickly."

Labour housing spokesman Phil Twyford said first-home buyers would have been bitterly disappointed by yesterday's news. "But they should point the finger of blame at the Government which has failed spectacularly to increase housing supply."

LVR changes

What are LVRs?
Restrictions that limit the amount banks can lend to borrowers who have deposits of less than 20 per cent.

Why were they introduced?
The Reserve Bank introduced them last year to reduce the risk of a house price bubble.

Have they worked?
Annual house price inflation across NZ has fallen from just under 10 per cent to 4.9 per cent, and in Auckland from 17 per cent to 8.5 per cent.

Who are they affecting?
The proportion of sales to first-home buyers has fallen from 19 per cent to 17 per cent but investors are still buying.

When will they be removed?
When the risk of resurgent house price rises has passed and if the policy is found to be "creating significant market distortions".