With John Key and Bill English he was a pillar of the last Government, which ordinarily is fatal for someone leading a party consigned to Opposition. But these are not ordinary times. When Winston Peters defied convention and went with the losing party last year, he changed the conventional post-election dynamics.
National is not a defeated party sitting in Opposition licking its wounds and brooding on the result, no matter how hard commentators and cartoonists are trying to convince themselves otherwise.
It is not a party receiving dismal polls and desperately in need of a new face to turn the polls around. To the contrary, at 44.5 per cent in the latest poll, National is still up where it was throughout its nine years in office.
It is worth recalling how popular it was. It came in with 44.9 per cent of the vote, was re-elected in 2011 with 47.3 per cent, re-elected again in 2014 with 47 per cent and received 44.4 per cent last year. By contrast, the highest vote Helen Clark's Government achieved at the three elections it won was 41.2 per cent in 2002.
Joyce had a key role in an unusually successful government and its credit with voters is still high. It would be no surprise if, like English and Key, Joyce feels nine years is enough and wants to do something else with the rest of his life. But this week he said he was "sounding out" his colleagues on the leadership, which means he is available if wanted.
He may stay out of the contest to see whether one of the declared contenders can win. If none of them has the numbers before the caucus is due to vote, pressure could come on Joyce to unite the team.
If the caucus door opens and Joyce strides out, it would be a terrible disappointment to news media that naturally want a new face. All the talk of generational change and the prospects of women leading both major parties would have come to nothing. National would be written off as a party of the past and those who have chastised Joyce for the $11b hole he saw in Labour's pre-election fiscal plan would be indignant.
They think Jacinda Ardern has changed the game, which may be true for the moment. But that is all the more reason for National not to choose its nearest thing to Labour's young mother-to-be.
Commentators tendering contrary advice to the MPs do not vote National and never would. If National go for generational or gender change, the same commentators will spend the next two and half years scorning its effort. Concede that territory to Jacinda for the moment.
Judith Collins has been saying the same thing. She is not running on her gender, she's offering the polar opposite to Jacinda politics — blunt speaking, confrontational Opposition politics and she would be very good at it. But she is a woman and it would not work to National's advantage against this Prime Minister.
Amy Adams would be different. She may already have the numbers. Not only was she the only candidate with visible support this week but two of the four MPs flanking her, Nikki Kaye and Chris Bishop, have higher prospects themselves and would not be tying themselves to a candidate unless they knew she was likely to win.
Simon Bridges could run her close but could he be prime minister? I'm not sure he distinguishes the national interest from the National interest. Joyce would be my choice, for the national interest alone.
