John Key: I'm probably on the losing side on flag vote

John Key has acknowledged more Kiwis would prefer to keep the current flag. Photo / Susan Nikolaison

Prime Minister John Key, who has championed a change in the New Zealand flag, acknowledged he was probably on the losing side at present, with more Kiwis preferring to keep the old one.

But he also says the numbers could change once an alternative is chosen from the first referendum, which starts today.

"By the time you get to the final referendum, that's where it will hot up both sides," he told reporters last night in Manila.

The four flag designs chosen by the Flag Consideration panel.

"You have to wait until you get to a one-on-one debate. That's when people will engage. That's when people will see campaigns run for and against and people will really start engaging at that point."

On balance at the moment it was probably more likely that the old flag would be kept.

"But it is not so overwhelming that you couldn't see that move around."

The first referendum asks voters to rank the five final alternatives. The preferential system will deliver a single winner which will be pitted against the current flag in the final referendum in March.

Red Peak was added to the referendum after a social media campaign. Photo / Getty Images

Mr Key said his ranking in the first referendum will be:

1. The blue and black silver fern

2. The red and black silver fern

3. Red Peak

4. The black and white silver fern

5. The koru

Mr Key said his party's private polling showed a decrease in the number of people who definitely wanted to keep the old flag.

The postal ballot runs from November 20 to December 11. Voting is not compulsory.