Shearer has made no secret of his intention to review shadow portfolio responsibilities and caucus rankings after his first 12 months as leader. He will probably announce the reshuffle following Labour's annual conference next month, giving allowing those handed new responsibilities time to get up to speed before the first sitting of Parliament next year.
Nanaia Mahuta, Labour's education spokeswoman, is likely to be tipped off the front-bench.
Shearer is known to believe education is a portfolio where Labour should be making all the running and making life intolerable for Hekia Parata, an increasingly accident-prone minister. But Labour isn't.
A big questionmark also hangs over Shane Jones, who has been sidelined for four months while the Auditor-General Lyn Provost investigates his granting of citizenship as a minister in the last Labour Government to a Chinese millionaire despite Internal Affairs advising him against doing so.
Senior whip Chris Hipkins is a strong contender for promotion, and Shearer might be tempted to elevate impressive new MPs such as former party president Andrew Little and Dunedin North's David Clark to Labour's second bench.
Shearer will be conscious that reshuffles create enemies. For that reason alone, David Cunliffe, who Shearer defeated in last December's leadership ballot, will remain on the front bench.
His talent is too valuable to squander. Shifting him would destabilise the Labour caucus and buy a fight the leader does not need.