Jitters on Campbell's primetime punch

John Campbell's champing at the bit, but opinion is split on whether he can survive against a Shortland Street wedding, or the ratings curse of Paul Holmes' new show on Prime.

Media watchers say Campbell Live - that starts on March 21 - does not share many of Holmes' problems because it follows 3 News, which gives it a platform for promotion and a follow-through audience.

Martin Gilman, chief executive of Total Media, said the advertising world was watching Campbell Live "with trepidation".

"Our concern is that he may not make it as far as the Simpsons. That's no disrespect. He's a great talent and I'm a big fan of John Campbell, but the evidence from Close Up and Paul Holmes is that there's only a limited audience. It won't grow much."

Head of University of Canterbury journalism school Jim Tully said Campbell was well-established and had a loyal following.

"He has the ability to challenge Close Up in a way Paul Holmes was never going to be able to do. It could be a strong battle.

"TV One has the edge and it could take seven to eight months, but I think this time next year it will be a lot closer."

John Campbell hopes to prove Mr Gilman wrong. He expects a strong flow-on from the news, as well as attracting disillusioned current affairs fans.

"Lots of people like current affairs, lots of younger people. They just don't like the way it is being given to them at the moment."

He has sworn not to concentrate on the Beehive, and pitched the show as current affairs, with a similar eclectic mix of interviews to Home Truths.

Peter Myles, media director of Colenso BBDO, was more optimistic than Gilman, estimating a series of strong, hard-hitting interviews a la Corngate would produce results.

"He will get a chunk of audience from Close Up but the majority from folks that are new to current affairs, because Campbell can deliver it in a totally different way. I think they will go in very aggressively, probably more so than TVNZ could ever do because of their position with the Government."

He said Campbell's worst enemy at the moment was the prolonged sunny weather, which drew people outside rather than onto the couch.

TV3 news boss Mark Jennings would not be drawn on hoped-for ratings. "We've seen what happened to Holmes after they made a projection and they look silly now. We would be very happy if we matched or did better than the Simpsons, however."

Mr Jennings hopes TV3 will have a breakfast show to run against TV One's Breakfast within 12 months.