Tough-on-crime policies were the norm of both political parties for a long time until Bill English signalled a change of direction back in 2011. But it was the Ardern government that truly drove the reform agenda, and the left successfully shifted the needle away from lock-‘em-up approaches. The public seemed to accept the argument that prisons were not a great solution to crime. But the Labour government didn’t make clear what the replacement was. Without a clear alternative, the reform agenda was never going to last.
In 2017, Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis announced Labour would reduce the prison population by 30 per cent, which would reduce New Zealand’s comparatively high incarceration rate. Sure enough, the number of prisoners dropped dramatically, from a high of around 11,000 in 2018 down to around 7500 in 2022.
One of the biggest influences on the reduction in prison numbers came from an informal source, that being attitudes from the judiciary. It appears clear judges moved with the mood of the country, and where there were options not to use prison then, they didn’t.
As that mood has changed back, however, Labour was forced to backpedal and revert to their own tough-on-crime rhetoric (they dumped their prison reduction target). And so, it seems, has the judiciary. Prison numbers are once again on the rise. Since 2022, the numbers having been rising sharply from around 7500 up to around 9000 today. The new Government will ensure these increases continue.
Whereas not long ago, a rise in prison numbers was lamented as a failing – and an expensive one at that – the increases that are set to come will be celebrated by the new Government. After all, it is fulfilling a campaign promise to get tough on crime.
How quickly the numbers go up, and to what degree, is unknowable, but instinctively, it seems there will be a sharp increase and we will travel past the old highs. At which point some old chestnuts will come out of the cupboard. Debates around the dangers of double-bunking, for example, will re-emerge, but sympathies around this issue are low and are unlikely to move the needle much. More significant will be the need to build new prisons. The kicker here is the eye-watering cost.
The last time this was proposed was a $1 billion spend at Waikeria, with similar efforts required every few years to keep pace with the then-forecasted increases in prison numbers. Given costs have increased since then, that amount will unquestionably be higher, probably double, now. And this is where the debates may be sparked.
It’s entirely possible, in fact likely, that this spending will be similarly framed as necessary and desirable. But if we are in an environment likely to be one of austerity and cutting back in other areas, it may prove difficult to hold that narrative. This will be particularly true if prisoners spend more time in prison but just get out and commit more crime.
Some high-profile efforts around rehabilitation will help mollify the pushback from opposing voices that will have a dim view about the increasing prison numbers, most notably among Māori. And in the rehabilitation space, I expect the Act Party to have ambitions. The party, under David Seymour, has always had a creative bent in this area.
But even in the short term, there are some prickly issues to navigate here. Currently, our prisons are under significant stress due to low staffing levels and significant staff turnover. And as prisoner numbers increase, so will the pressures within the prisons. That has a couple of serious implications. The first is that efforts at rehabilitation become difficult, bordering on impossible.
The other concern is that prisons with inadequate staffing numbers use extended lockdowns of prisoners to solve the problem. This makes for tense prisons and raises the possibility of catastrophic incidents, which would throw the whole debate back to centre-stage.
These are very real problems for an impatient government. Pushed by Act, National may be forced to move further and faster than it might ordinarily enjoy. But in the Corrections sector, change will be crimped by some extremely pressing realities that mean any changes will come with a very stiff cost.
Tough talk on crime and justice issues have served Opposition parties well over many, many years. Dealing with the realities of crime in government is a whole other story.
Dr Jarrod Gilbert is the Director of Independent Research Solutions and a sociologist at the University of Canterbury.
