Weather Watch: What does Cyclone Wilma mean for NZ?

Beware of strong winds averaging up to 200km/h with the arrival of cyclone Wilma at the weekend. Photo / Thinkstock

Another weekend and meh, another cyclone. It feels a bit surreal that I wrote in a Herald blog just a few weeks ago that New Zealand was long overdue for some cyclones. At the time, it had been 14 or 15 years since our last strong one hit. I didn't really realise I was setting off some sort of chain reaction. I swear it's not my fault. Just like I swore the Christchurch earthquake wasn't my fault despite my one off overnight trip there the night of the quake.

Hmm ... maybe I'm using my "magic powers" in the wrong way. Ya know ... it's been a long time since we all had a pay rise. Let's give that a couple weeks and see what happens.

Fake super powers aside Severe Tropical Cyclone Wilma is racing towards us with strength that is rarely seen in a storm so close to northern New Zealand. She remains a very powerful and dangerous Category 4 cyclone with winds averaging - let me emphasis that, AVERAGING up to 200km/h. Want to know how strong that is? Put your hand out of the car window at 100km/h and times it by two. Here in New Zealand we almost never record wind gusts that high in our main centres let along sustained winds at that speed. Speaking of gusts - her strongest gusts are estimated to be 260km/h. Not something you want to get caught up in if you're on a cruise or yacht. In fact, a yacht would be sunk in minutes.

Check out these 8 weather maps that show Wilma's expected wind and rain over the upper North Island and her tracking by both the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and the Fiji Meteorological Service.

Anyway - it's all very well knowing what the winds are doing 1000kms away from New Zealand - but what does it mean for us? Well, for northern New Zealand this is a long weekend, as Auckland celebrates it's Anniversary.

Wilma will make a very close sweep of northern New Zealand on Saturday, but thankfully she is not only going to weaken rapidly, but she will also move slightly to the east of Northland. While our government forecaster has issued a number of rain warnings for the upper North Island this weekend the figures, overall, aren't as extreme as last weekend's storm. They should still be taken seriously though as rivers will still be running higher due to last weekend's low. Flooding could happen faster and with less rain this time around.

Check out my special detailed forecast here for the upper North Island this long weekend.

The heaviest rain in a tropical cyclone lines in the southern quarter, especially the south eastern quarter. That means the most torrential rain will fall out at sea.

Wilma will be stronger than Zelia was when she neared us, so we expect winds to be stronger too. Wilma poses are more serious threat for Northland - with both wind and rain - and I also think eastern Bay of Plenty and East Cape.

Cyclone Wilma will rocket past us on Saturday and out into the Pacific so quickly she will minimise the chances of widespread damage.

If you're a little further south of the upper North Island you'll just get a bit of cloud and brief rain. Nothing much at all. It is definitely and upper North Island event.

After Wilma the long range maps show no more cyclones or tropical lows for New Zealand for at least a week. Fingers crossed next weekend will be a sunny, hot, dry one. Of course next weekend we'll be in February - the hottest month of the year.

The next talk you hear of a cyclone will be a new one forming north of New Zealand but it won't be heading for us - unfortunately it will be heading towards Queensland and my gut instinct tells me this one could even make Category 5 strength if the long range models are anything to go by. Landfall could be around Townsville or Cairns but rain could affect the entire state. One to watch very closely.