Weather Watch: Summer weekend

There is a chance to celebrate clear skies ahead this weekend. Photo / Thinkstock

Most people, but not all, are in for a great summer weekend this weekend with high air pressure over the North Island and an advancing front in the South Island. The front, which is attached to a low in the Southern Ocean, will mean warmer overnights for those in the south, which have had single digit mornings recently. Overnight lows will jump back into double digits. But the front does mean a little rain, mostly for Southland, Lakes District, Coastal Otago, Fiordland (how strange?) and it may have enough oomph to stretch into Canterbury on Saturday - but don't hold your breath, it won't be enough to reverse the dry grounds.

In the North Island the air pressure remains high - as it has done so for most of the summer. In fact it's the stable air pressure and warm air over the country that has seen very few thunderstorms this summer. Click here to read just why we haven't had thunderstorms despite the heat and humidity this summer.

The weekend will be hot in the north too but minus the crippling humidity that has become iconic of the 2010/11 summer.

Highs across New Zealand will be in the mid 20s and lows between the low double digits and mid-teens ... in other words, comfortable. It's this slight drop in overnight lows that makes March one of the most popular months of the year weatherwise.

So when is the rain coming back? Well we could be entering another round of drought-like weather. The highs (which are rain blockers) are starting to steadily stream in from the Southern Ocean, south of Australia and up into the Tasman Sea. They are blocking the fronts from the west and are also helping direct tropical lows away from us ... which is probably a good thing considering we're still picking a cyclone next week and since that story was written the models have shifted its path further south, towards NZ. Don't worry, we're not in for a direct hit but this potential cyclone does look severe, possibly category 4, but it will pass near us - not over us. Based on today's weather models I'd say we won't get any severe weather from it, but to be honest these lows can sometimes be a bit like herding cats, so definitely one to watch.

Meanwhile Australia's weather woes have shifted from the north east to the north west. Two tropical storms have formed - but they aren't especially strong yet - dropping in and out of cyclone status. We have Carlos over Darwin and Dianne out to the west. Dianne is out at sea and with no land to limit her growth she is predicted to reach Cat 3 strength before turning back towards the coast. She is likely to hit Perth as an ex-cyclone next week. Meanwhile Carlos is meandering around Darwin causing flooding. He has caused their heaviest rains in a 48 hour period on record and Australian authorities say Darwin is likely to have it's wettest "wet season" on record too (which ends in April).

There is still plenty of life in the weather around the South West Pacific and we still have several more weeks to go - possibly longer due to La Nina.