Weather Watch: Settled week after a month of wild weather

File photo / Alan Gibson

It's been incredibly busy weather-wise for the past month but conditions are going to be a little more settled this week for most New Zealanders and Australians.

While the tropics within our satellite map (which goes from northwest Queensland to Samoa) are expected to remain much quieter this week, the focus will now shift to the Southern Ocean and activity there.

And while the tropics will be quiet this week, things may change as soon as this coming weekend.

Heavy Rain

The South Island will continue to see heavy rain on Monday pushing up the West Coast. Rain warnings are currently in force. More heavy rain could move in next weekend.

Severe Gales

Gale-force winds are going to affect central New Zealand on Monday as a low in the Southern Ocean pushes against a high over northern New Zealand. It's possible those winds may reach severe gale at times in exposed places.

Windy Weather

Windy weather will be off and on this week as deep lows in the Southern Ocean churn by. They are likely to bring plenty of changeable weather to the South Island, especially with strong winds chopping and changing from northwest to southwest. Very much like a spring set up. This is expected to continue into the weekend at least, meaning a mixture of hot and cold days for those in the south and east.

Tropical Cyclones

The next three days will be cyclone-free, with the next five days likely to be similar. However, it's possible a new tropical storm will form due north of Australia in the Gulf of Carpentaria on Friday. It's outside of our forecast zone but we'll keep an eye on it anyway, being so close to the regions hit by Yasi. Only one model that we use is predicting this low at this stage.

Other Tropical Development

The long-range models also indicate a low of either tropical or sub-tropical origins will form northeast of New Zealand next week and track north of us in a southwest direction towards the New South Wales coast. At this stage the models don't show this low as being anything more than a weak depression. We'll watch it closely though and keep you up to date as we are in the peak of the cyclone season now.