Vernon Small: Stuck in politics' transit lounge

Opposition is politics' answer to the airport transit lounge.

You know you will get out sometime, but when? In the interim you twiddle your thumbs, read without enjoyment, sit in uncomfortable seats, keep an eye on the weather and hope the next call is yours.

National is not even sure it will be on the next flight out in 2002, given the level of carefree support for Helen Clark's Administration.

But it has to put aside the nagging panic about missing the plane, and start preparing.

No one in National is kidding his or herself that they have had a great start, although the optimists point to some small victories - embarrassing Broadcasting Minister Marian Hobbs, exposing divisions over the GM food moratorium and, only this week, extracting an apology from Helen Clark.

Wearing away at the Government's credibility (call it the Tuku strategy) is the first step - especially since National has given itself an 18-month lead time into significant policy releases.

But it still has a number of serious problems to address, including the crucial decision on if, or when, to refresh the leadership.

At the moment there are persistent rumours that Wyatt Creech will be rolled. Mostly, they come from opponents, but it would be no surprise if the deputy leader stood aside before the next election. He is a list member and can go without the fuss of a byelection. The party is waiting for a signal from him.

Leadership aside, National faces other challenges.

It knows it has lost touch with important sections of the electorate over nine years in office. As part of the process of reconnecting, it must feel its way towards the political centre.

In the House, it must come to grips with the skills needed in Opposition, and sharply lift its performance.

Mr Creech on health, Max Bradford on business and Jenny Shipley herself in the provinces have taken the first step on the long road to rebuilding political networks.

Finding and claiming the centre ground is a more vexed issue.

Partly, it is a question of style, of shrugging off the haughtiness of Government and becoming more populist - getting down and getting dirty.

But mainly it is about positioning on the big issues, including economic management.

On some fronts it is easy.

National knows where it stands now, and will stand come the election, on ACC and employment law. On other issues, the debate is still in the early stages and relatively low-key.

Jenny Shipley has chosen Roger Sowry, Nick Smith and Tony Ryall as her attack dogs in the House, but that is one brat short of a pack.

The stray, Bill English, may be a diminished figure since his lacklustre campaign performance, but he is quietly philosophising - about National's future face, its place on the liberal-conservative axis, its commitment to tax cuts, the tenets underpinning its superannuation policy ...

He knows the party must have this debate and he is marking his territory.

Elsewhere, there are those in National hoping that a different, less fundamental approach will unlock the transit lounge doors.

They (and Mrs Shipley appears to lean their way) are intent on finding issues with "crossover" appeal that transcend the usual left-right analysis: Green issues, defence (but not F-16s, which are a widespread turnoff), even the recent de facto property rights and same-sex marriage debate.

There are powerful arguments for limiting fundamental change. Isn't the Government enjoying a sound economy based on the very settings it has promised to alter: continuing tax cuts, a flexible labour market and a business-friendly ACC and regulatory environment?

Why reposition National significantly leftwards when it can reap rewards from an increasingly disgruntled business sector and a slowing economy?

The poor performance in the House, and hence the media, is the knottiest problem, although it is too early to press the panic button.

Yes, the Government has had a dream run and is lucky to inherit an economy in reasonably good shape delivering solid surpluses.

Yes, it is lucky because it does not face a 1984-style currency crunch, or a BNZ bailout, as in 1990.

But that is not a one-way street.

The Lange Government was able to demonise Sir Robert Muldoon and his Government for bad economic management, trampling on the rights of individuals and, ultimately, acting unconstitutionally during the messy transition.

Jim Bolger was able to open the books and reveal huge projected deficits and a BNZ on the brink.

Helen Clark's Government has no such point of attack. National is not on the defensive over any particular piece of mismanagement, except perhaps the "culture of extravagance" in the public sector.

Fear of having its own tenure turned back on it may explain National's reluctance to attack.

It must forget any tendency it had in Government to dismiss the House as a sideshow listened to by few - in Opposition it is crucial. It creates headlines, TV pictures and enduring images. It is the best, almost the only forum for head-to-head battles and the chance to embarrass the Government.

The daily grilling of ministers at question time has been a particular problem.

National's approach is fashioned at a morning strategy meeting. MPs put in their bids for questions and push their interests. It is a good theory but overly democratic, most obviously in the mismatch between the inexperienced Phil Heatley and Finance Minister Michael Cullen over the controversial Timberlands West Coast assistance package.

Giving newcomers the chance to gain experience is useful, but the lack of bite must be dealt with.

As shadow Leader of the House, Mr Sowry is revisiting the strategy over the coming three-week recess.

Encouragingly for National, it showed flickers of fire last week.

Two apologies (albeit with considerable help from Act) should gladden any Opposition's heart, although the Government's savvy management lessened the damage.

John Tamihere's apology was shorter and more complete than Tuku Morgan's. Helen Clark apologised to public servants without reservation - no bleeding, no crisis meetings filmed through Beehive windows. Simple politics.