It's going down to the wire

Don Brash and Helen Clark are now locked in a close contest over who gets to be the next Prime Minister.

The Herald's Mood of the Boardroom survey shows just over 70 per cent of the chief executives surveyed clearly believe Brash will make the best Prime Minister. Clark scores 28 per centsupport.

But Clark has emerged the clear winner on the campaign trail, with a 3.23 average performance rating (on a 1-5 scale) against Brash's 2.95 average showing on the Herald's survey.

Clark previously contested three elections as Labour's leader and has notched up two wins on her belt.

This is Brash's first election campaign as a political party leader. The former governor of the Reserve Bank, was used to holding sway at his office across the street from Parliament, but in this fight he is the rookie.

National has again opened a polling lead on Labour. But chief executives - who have displayed uncanny perceptiveness in the way they have rated the pair - have shared their insights into the candidates which suggest the election could go either way.

Clark clearly dominates on leadership skills, rating an average 3.78 to Brash's 3.09 score on the 1-5 scale. She also outranks her opponent on other political attributes such as management and the ability to form a coalition. These judgments are under-scored by the deft hand Clark has played in quickly staking out the Greens as a potential coalition partner, while Brash publicly burnt-off Rodney Hide's Act - the potential coalition partner for National which business clearly favours.

Where the newcomer scores is big-picture attributes.

Brash outranks Clark on a vision and strategy for New Zealand, economic management, putting New Zealand's interests ahead of their parties, courage and trustworthiness.

This reflects the fact that many business people believe Brash entered Parliament to 'do a job'. "He'll only get one term to make a real difference before opposition sets in," observed an Australian chief executive based here. "Clark is more in the (John) Howard mold of cautious stable leadership."

His strong rating on trustworthiness - a 4.10 average ranking against Clark's 2.44 score - suggests her credibility has been eroded by the recent Doone affair and the speeding ministerial car episode. 'Clark rates more highly as a politician ... Brash more highly as an authentic leader" was how one pharmaceutical company head summed up their differences.

Where the going gets tricky for Brash is in learning how to read the clear signals that business has sent him through the survey. If he is smart he will brand a Labour/Greens coalition as 'not in New Zealand's best interests.'

He also needs to take a public stroll with more players than United Future's Peter Dunne to demonstrate he is prepared to cut a deal to get into power.

Clark needs to display some humility to offset her apparent arrogance and extend an olive branch to the many New Zealanders Labour has excluded from its election spendup.

Despite poll volatility she has the virtue of incumbency. Rural Portfolio Investments chairman Craig Norgate points to political inexperience on National's front-bench. "When you contemplate a change of government often people don't actually show how capable a leader they are until they're actually given the mantle. Helen has just grown and grown in the role - although she's perhaps better now internationally than she is domestically."

Westpac chief executive Ann Sherry says that from what she has seen so far in the campaign, Clark "feels" more confident. "Don's got to find a way of convincing people she's not right, rather than convincing them he's right.

"It's a pretty tough ask, quite frankly."

"Helen Clark's huge strength is she has always got a 20-second sound-bite in her head that gets to the heart of the matter," added Pumpkin Patch chairman Greg Muir.

Chief executives, who were not prepared to put their heads up above the parapet during the election campaign, were invited to offer unattributed comments. Asked to rate the two candidates on their campaign performances on a 1-5 scale, a top luxury car importer gave them each a 3. "Helen because she acts like a rottweiller and Don because he acts like Don."

National surged into the lead again on polls published at the weekend. But as the cliche goes, "a week is a long time in politics".