KEY POINTS:
The Herald assesses New Zealand First's performance.
Performance rating: 4/10
Would have been higher but for the disastrous donations imbroglio of the past three months, which completely wiped out its achievements.
Until then NZ First had been the model example of a minor party propping up
a minority Government.
It delivered stable Government - something always in question with leader Winston Peters involved. Mr Peters made a good fist of the Foreign Affairs portfolio.
But NZ First was still polling under 5 per cent, partly because of the minor party curse of not getting credit where it was due. Then came the donations controversy, day after day of bad news, and a serious credibility problem for Mr Peters.
Assets and liabilities:
Mr Peters is the centre pole in the NZ First marquee. He is its main asset - and its main liability. If he falls, the tent comes down too.
He still has a following and a seemingly innate ability to connect with protest-voters, the disaffected, the people who have a problem with everything.
Of the other MPs Ron Mark is an asset, on a smaller scale. Mr Mark is likeable, competent, well known for his tough stance on law and order. The other MPs are neither assets nor liabilities - they are just there.
Mr Peters' long absences on foreign affairs duties hurt. NZ First was rudderless during these stretches, with deputy Peter Brown ineffective. When at home, Mr Peters would make an impact - then he'd be gone again.
The donations controversy has been so damaging it has even turned some of NZ First's assets into liabilities. It can no longer claim to be clean when it comes to secret funding from business.
And John Key's decision to banish it as a governing partner has cost it the strategic "king-maker" position between the two main parties. NZ First cannot sell itself as the party that will keep National honest after this election, a position that would have made it an ideal stopping point for voters deserting Labour. Instead, Mr Key's move has allowed National to say a vote for NZ First is a vote for Labour.
Success and failures:
NZ First helped deliver increased superannuation, more than half a billion dollars into elderly care, 1000 more police and 250 support staff, the SuperGold card with free off-peak travel on public transport, higher subsidies for hearing aids.
As Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr Peters' major achievement was his contribution to hastening the thaw in relations between Washington and Wellington, in particular developing a close working relationship with Condoleezza Rice. He got Dr Rice to visit New Zealand - no mean feat.
The donations controversy was a double whammy: first, the Herald revealed emails suggesting billionaire Owen Glenn did donate (disproving the "no" sign).
Then the Spencer Trust was outed as having funnelled thousands of dollars from fishing and bloodstock magnates the Vela brothers and property investor Sir Robert Jones.
Mr Peters' belligerent attitude and blanket denials caught him out more than once.
But he shook off Parliament's privileges committee inquiry. And by portraying it as a witch-hunt, he even turned the sow's ear of the donations controversy into a silk purse to some extent, eliciting sympathy for himself in some quarters.
But he is not out of the woods - the Serious Fraud Office is still to report back on its donations investigation.
Policies to watch for:
Wants to give taxpayer support to New Zealand-owned banks so they can lead interest rates down.
NZ First would make all Government and local bodies bank with Kiwibank or the TSB Bank, making them more profitable, turning them into market leaders whose interest rates the other banks have to follow. It wants to protect consumers by putting a Government guarantee for the first $100,000 in these banks too.
NZ First wants to outlaw gangs, and has legislation based on South Australia's ban ready.
What is needs to do:
Mr Peters needs to find a fresh theme or two that catapult him into the headlines - for the right reasons.
Hitting out at "voodoo economics" giving rise to New Zealand's financial conditions is solid but not spectacular.
He may need to turn his guns on to the Maori Party, appealing to redneck fears about Maori holding the balance of power.
But this would not go down well with the Maori vote he courts.
Mr Peters is in fine form - in his own words, "super-motivated". He is happiest when fighting for his political life, wanting to make the media eat their words.
Mr Peters cannot be written off. He needs one in 20 voters to get 5 per cent, or to pull off a coup in Tauranga.
He is targeting the elderly more than ever, having spoken to numerous Grey Power meetings in the past couple of months. He was with Kapiti Grey Power yesterday.
If he has a good election campaign - and not a repeat of the muddled one he ran in 2005 - he is in with a chance.
In a nutshell
Formed in 1993 after Winston Peters and National parted company, NZ First has won seats at all four MMP elections.
This election will be its hardest yet. It is recovering from the donations controversy, is polling under 5 per cent and the security blanket of the Tauranga seat will be hard to grab back.
NZ First stormed into Parliament in 1996 with 13.4 per cent of the party vote, giving it 17 seats. Mr Peters was "king-maker", surprisingly opting for National until he was sacked from the Cabinet and the coalition, then NZ First itself, imploded.
In 1999, NZ First limped in under the threshold with 4.3 per cent of the party vote but Peters kept Tauranga by 63 votes. The party survived with five MPs and licked its wounds in opposition.
The 2002 election saw NZ First bounce back to 10.4 per cent of the vote, giving the party 13 seats on the opposition benches.
Mr Peters lost Tauranga (his seat of 21 years) in 2005, but with 5.7 per cent of the vote his party returned to Parliament with seven seats.
He struck a confidence and supply agreement with Labour and got the baubles of Minister of Foreign Affairs.
The NZ First party list will be released on Tuesday.
