KEY POINTS:
No Government ever wants to lose an election. But sometimes Governments just hang on too long. I worked for John Major at No 10 Downing Street in the run up to the 1997 election when Tony Blair swept into power.
None of us wanted to lose. And whatever
the polls said, we thought we could win.
But we were slaughtered in one of the bloodiest landslides in British political history. The Conservatives had, after all, been in power for 18 years. Victory would have given us 23 years in power. No government should ever be in power for twenty-three years.
Long periods in office are bad for the body politic and bad for the party in government. Long periods in opposition sap energy and discourage new thinkers. Either way, the dead wood stays intact and in its seats. It's taken 11 years and three elections for the Tories to have a shot at winning an election.
So I feel some sympathy for Helen Clark. She's been an energetic ambassador for New Zealand abroad and won praise from critics as well as supporters.
But from an international perspective, I can tell you, it's time.
Twenty years ago the world was watching New Zealand. If the Governor of the Reserve Bank or Finance Minister came to London, he or she was lauded. Journalists and political analysts flocked to learn from them.
Not everything worked, but New Zealand was a laboratory of political experiment.
Central bank independence served as a model for other economies, agricultural reform was extolled, New Zealand's indirect tax system was the envy of Treasuries across the globe. The Commonwealth Secretariat, the WTO, the World Bank all selected New Zealanders for flagship roles.
Now the think tanks are indifferent and the press pays little heed except for the occasional bizarre tale about flatulent sheep causing global warming.
Last week I checked the economic statistics page at the back of the Economist only to find that New Zealand's entry had been dropped. Twenty years ago the magazine thought New Zealand was philosophically the centre of the world. There was regular and admiring coverage in its pages and those of other serious newspapers. No more.
That is sad. From being first to give women the vote, to launching (and then reforming) the welfare state, to declaring a nuclear-free zone, New Zealand has been at the cutting edge of the modern age.
Enoch Powell once said that all political careers end in failure. Often that's because the conquering hero stays on too long. Tony Blair's place in history would be a total success if he'd quit before Iraq.
Helen Clark has shown the Labour Party can win three elections and govern with competence. That's an achievement. But if Labour is to thrive, the party needs to think beyond the present leadership and plan for the future. The Prime Minister remains a giant among pygmies and her party needs a succession plan. A move out of office need not mean Helen Clark's talents would be lost. She is a respected stateswoman who can surely move on to a global leadership role.
To this regular visitor, it seems New Zealand is progressively falling victim to political correctness, government hand-holding and stodgy economic growth.
John Key is new and little known internationally. But he's an intelligent and capable leader who could be wielding influence and earning squillions abroad had he not chosen to return to New Zealand politics. It feels like time for a change.
In the last 40 years New Zealand has produced one politician who has commanded unparalleled international respect. Why Roger Douglas wants to return to politics in 2008 will baffle some. But any rational electorate should welcome the chance to engage his experience and stature in weathering the economic storms that are about to batter NZ's shores.
Beyond that, no dotty combinations of little-linked political groups signing up for the trappings of office without the ability to govern. Enough of Winston's tail wagging the nation's dog. Give National a mandate and let's see what can be delivered.
* Simon Walker was a TVNZ journalist and communications director for the New Zealand Labour Party before moving to the UK, where he was special adviser to Prime Minister John Major and communications secretary to the Queen. He is chief executive of the British Private Equity and Venture Capital Association.
