Richard Prebble: Cold war is only just beginning

Events this month have changed our world. The issues we need to focus on now are: What is a post-Saddam world going to be like? What is New Zealand's role, and the role of the United Nations and the great alliances like Nato?

Some point to the fact that a right-wing government in France and a left-wing government in Germany led the opposition to America as evidence that this dispute is not an ideological split like the Cold War. Left-wing Britain and right-wing Australia are the United States' great allies.

I am not so sure.

America, post-September 11, sees rogue states as a threat to its security. A Saddam Hussein with weapons of mass destruction might well have armed some suicidal terrorist groups.

America's view is that alliances and allies that will not act are also broken.

The world will not go back to the way it was. Americans may deny it, but Europe's security guarantee, the US Army in Germany, is moving to bases in new Europe in countries like Czechoslovakia that have strongly supported the US position.

The Czech Prime Minister was asked why he did not support France's stand. He replied that his country had bitter memories of the value of French guarantees.

The split between "old" Europe and "new" Europe (the countries of the old Soviet bloc) may even put the European Union's enlargement in doubt.

France's illusion of being a world power depends in part on its veto power at the UN Security Council. Events have shown that France in reality cannot veto the US.

America is the world's only superpower. The reach and power of the US military have never been greater.

Nations like North Korea, which have used America's preoccupation with Iraq to revoke the commitment to nuclear non-proliferation, will need to carefully reconsider. As will Iran, which recently admitted to an extensive nuclear programme.

Where does this leave New Zealand?

When external events are affecting our daily lives - we see it every time we fill up our cars - this country has never had less influence. We have gone from being at the world's decision-making table to being just one of the 191 nations of the UN.

Australia has taken a different course. It is a strategic ally of the US. Australian diplomats have access to key American decision-makers. This month Australia's negotiation for a US-Australia free-trade agreement started.

New Zealand is now just a "friend". In diplomatic language a friend is not what we think of but merely a country with which the US has no dispute.

In George W. Bush's National Security Strategy, New Zealand is credited for its assistance as a friend alongside Singapore. Even with our contribution to Operation Enduring Freedom, we are no more than just a friend.

When New Zealand was a strategic ally of America, New Zealand diplomats had access to discuss defence and the full spectrum of issues ranging from the environment, trade, agricultural quarantine, tourism - issues vital to a trading nation.

Other countries would also meet us because of our Anzus relationship. Diplomats report that today they cannot get interviews in Europe with decision-makers. We are irrelevant.

Does it matter? Helen Clark, in her prime ministerial address to Parliament, said a free-trade agreement with the US was her Government's top trade objective. Treasury has identified a US-NZ free trade pact as the single most prosperity-increasing measure. New Zealand is not even on America's free-trade waiting list.

The US Embassy's deputy chief of mission, Philip Wall, reinforced this when he said: "I have to report that, as of now, the United States Government is not prepared to commit to bilateral trade negotiations." That is diplomatic-speak for "no deal".

Another successful world trade round is also of critical importance. France, to whom we have allied ourselves, is totally opposed to an international trade agreement that would advantage this country.

New Zealand has moved from the countries to which we align ourselves to those whose strategic interests and values we do not share.

The Government has tried hard to straddle both camps. Helen Clark is careful not to criticise Bush, Tony Blair and John Howard. New Zealand has a frigate in the Gulf. We are talking about offering postwar help.

None of these steps make us an ally. Fiji earns foreign exchange by hiring out its Army to the UN for peacekeeping. It is appreciated, but it does not give Fiji influence. In the post-September 11 world, when terrorism can reach any country, we have become irrelevant.

Howard and Blair have shown great courage and, as a result, their countries have a say in shaping their destinies.

I fear we will look back on March 2003 to conclude this was the point New Zealand truly lost its way. Without any debate we elected to put our faith in a United Nations that is just an empty debating chamber.

The post-Saddam world for New Zealand could be very cold indeed. We do not live in Helen Clark's "benign environment". There are threats to small democratic nations. Our security lies where it always has: in a coalition of the willing.

* Richard Prebble is the leader of Act