Iran has vowed to close the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely if the United States follows through on President Donald Trump’s threats.
It’s after Trump gave Iran an ultimatum to open the passage before American forces “obliterate” their power plants.
Trump posted on social media at 11.44 pm GMT that “if Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!”
The deadline will be around midday on March 24, New Zealand time.
An attack on Iran’s power plants would likely cause a large-scale blackout, resulting in widespread civilian harm to the country’s more than 91 million residents.
Waikato University international law professor Alexander Gillespie told The Front Page that bombing civilian infrastructure is generally illegal under the laws of armed conflict.
“The problem is that Iran is doing exactly the same threatening of civilian objects as well around the Gulf.
“A reprisal is where one illegal act follows another illegal act, but that’s exactly where we are right now, where they’re both threatening each other to escalate the situation by putting pain on civilians,” he said.
If the US actually bombs Iran’s power plants, Gillespie said, Iran is expected to respond in kind.
“Iran wants a sectarian war with its neighbours. It wants a theocratic problem whereby they can justify themselves and support their own regime, which is already very dubious and repugnant in many ways.
“But, the more that they feel pressure from external enemies, and the more that they can pull these enemies into their own homeland, the more advantage they will get.
“Trump is most dangerous when he’s got his back against the wall, and Iran knows this, and so they know they can put pressure on Trump by controlling the Strait, and they also know they can make the war worse by starting a sectarian conflict with its neighbours.
“Iran will thrive in chaos. That’s exactly what a despotic regime wants,” he said.
New Zealand has joined 19 other countries in a joint statement that condemned “in the strongest terms” Iran’s attacks and threats against commercial ships in the Gulf.
The statement also said its signatories would be ready “to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the strait”.
Any such future support would need to be considered by Cabinet.
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters told Ryan Bridge Today that the Government will “seriously consider” assisting to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
“We’ve been involved for a long, long time trying to secure passage through there because the world’s trade routes and costs depend on it.
“What does it involve? Well, like the other countries who have said, if it comes to securing the safety of people, that is not in a war-like or bellicose way, but in a safety way, we will seriously consider it,” he said.
When asked if that involved military assets, Peters replied: “If you haven’t got military assets, you’ve got no help you can give at all.
“We’re talking about the safety and security of people, it’s not taking part in a war, or engaging in anything we’re not involved in, and we’ve been ultra-cautious against all sorts of advice I might say on social media to not put our head out here.”
Bridge clarified that the help New Zealand could provide is what we already do, like our efforts against the Houthis in the Red Sea. Peters agreed.
A small NZDF six-person team had been deployed to the Middle East to help plan and support precision strikes against Houthi targets that might threaten shipping in the Red Sea.
The team hadn’t entered Yemen and did not conduct combat operations on the ground, but rather worked in intelligence gathering and planning.
Gillespie said “no boots on the ground” might be easy to say now, but defending the Strait in practice might require more involvement.
“I think it’s unlikely, but these things are very easy to say no to at the beginning, but if you really gotta control the Strait because of the economic consequences, the way this plays out is unexpected and unforeseen at the moment,” he said.
The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) is preparing to expand its operations in Lebanon, and has said it expects to face “several more weeks of fighting” against Iran and Hezbollah
Israel has struck a bridge in southern Lebanon, something the country’s President Joseph Aoun has called a “blatant violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty” and a “prelude to a ground invasion”.
Hezbollah in Lebanon, along with other Iran-aligned groups like the Houthis in Yemen, are part of the regime’s proxy network and could open additional fronts.
“The Houthis in Yemen have been suspiciously quiet for quite some time. But this is part of the problem with Iran, that they have a number of local groups that they support who will act on their behalf, often in an illegal way.
“We can expect that this conflict is going to get worse, not better. And as much as you’re looking at the possibility of boots on the ground in Iran, there’s a strong possibility that there’ll also be Israeli boots in Lebanon as well.
" They want to bring the opposition into these areas because that’s where you level the playing field, where you fight street by street. You don’t bomb them from the air. And if there’s an advantage to be played, it’s for groups in Iran and groups in Lebanon to pull these soldiers in,” he said.
Listen to the full episode to hear about:
The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5pm. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.
You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.