“To me, it really does look like Trump has stepped back from the brink,” he said.
The pause follows threats of a major attack on critical Iranian infrastructure and comes amid competing claims of success.
Trump has touted the latest development as a “total and complete victory”, while Iran says it has achieved victory in forcing the US to engage with its 10-point plan.
Jackson said this points to a broader issue seen in recent conflicts.
“You can’t really translate military superiority into political gains. You can bomb people, and you can blow up their stuff, but you can’t really translate that into the kind of political outcomes that you actually set out to achieve,” he said.
“What it’s done is it’s confirmed that Iran’s one major strategic strength is the fact that it can pretty much threaten global shipping through the [Strait of Hormuz] at any time.”
The strait is critical for global oil supply, and any disruption could have widespread economic implications.
“Everything that Israel and the US wanted to achieve has been completely not achieved and is unachievable in a sense. They have not changed the regime, they have not taken control of the strait, they have not forced Iran to accept a humiliating peace deal that would involve external monitoring of all its nuclear facilities.”
Jackson said Iran had maintained its position throughout the conflict.
“Iran has just stuck to their demands and America has blinked, and so has Israel apparently,” he said.
Jackson said the US is experiencing a dynamic of “increasing military force but declining political influence”, which he believes increases the risk of more reckless military behaviour.
“When a state is in a period of decline like that, it tends to lash out, and it tends to rely on what it thinks is the mechanism or the mode by which it can reassert its power. In some ways, the same is true of Israel as well,” Jackson said.
“It’s the power of deterrence. The idea that I am so powerful and I’m willing to use this power that everyone will be deterred from doing anything against my interests.”
With reports that the US and Iran have agreed to a provisional two-week ceasefire, Jackson said negotiations would be critical in determining what happens next.
“Military force is not achieving anything. The only people who really suffer from that are ordinary citizens, thousands upon thousands of which we’ve already seen die in these wars to no good end, to no good reason.”
Listen to the full episode to hear more on:
• How Iran’s 10-point plan could shape negotiations
• Why Israel’s response could influence what happens next
• What the latest developments mean for global oil supply
The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5pm. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.
You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
