Politics review: Devilishly tricky decision for Clark

By VERNON SMALL

If you are Pakeha, male, in Cabinet and in Labour's rightist faction you probably favour a deal with United Future.

But it seems if you are to the left, Maori, gay, a woman and a backbencher you are keen to work with the Greens.

Helen Clark's preference is for a deal with both parties, giving her Government 71 votes in the 120-seat House - and an alternative whenever she has any problem mustering the numbers.

That may not be the best outcome for either United's Peter Dunne or the Greens' Jeanette Fitzsimons.

Sharing the supporting role weakens their leverage over the Labour-Progressive Coalition Government. Being left out altogether gives them none - at least in the short term.

But if either Dunne or Fitzsimons is trying to steal a march on the other he or she will have worked out that the way to Labour's heart is through the clogged order paper - the 90-odd pieces of legislation in Parliament's queue.

Any party prepared to help to clear that logjam through granting "urgency" and extending Parliament's sitting hours will win Labour's gratitude.

The Greens severely rationed urgency in the last term. It was one of the most compelling reasons for Clark calling the early election. It was also a far greater impediment to Parliament's "smooth" working than the occasional half-hour explaining how Jim Anderton could leave a party outside the House and lead it inside the House.

Now it is a key reason why Labour seems to be leaning towards the devil it doesn't know - United Future - rather than the Green one it knows only too well.

As the closed-door talks end their first week, Parliament's Mr Malleable has the inside running over the prickly Greens.

Labour also faces a stark choice exposed by the Greens' non-negotiable stance on the lifting of the GM moratorium.

It can rely on United Future, which could provide support for the full three-year term, or lean on the Greens, who could pull the plug in October next year.

No contest.

There are personality issues, too.

Ask almost any Labour MP to comment on the two parties' leaders and watch them stroke - almost patronise - Dunne. Then stand back as they bridle and spit about Green co-leader Rod Donald.

Fitzsimons is rated more highly, but her readiness to condemn Labour over the "contaminated" corn ruckus has lowered her mana in Labour eyes.

That is not to say Clark will send the Greens packing when the talks wrap up next week. She won't.

The "party line" is that if either United or the Greens wants to flounce out, then fine, but Labour won't be showing them the door.

The talks themselves are proving hard to read. Each side has a tight team and is not briefing caucuses, so the usual leaks have been choked off.

The talks with United Future are likely to be centred on process more than policy. Dunne has a diverse and untested caucus, is light on policy, and needs to secure input into Government policy-making later in the term rather than score a raft of policy victories now.

The Greens have different incentives.

They believe they gave away their confidence-and-supply vote too cheaply in 1999. This time they want a detailed policy agreement up-front.

Their annual conference gave them a solid mandate for that, and will likely baulk at anything less.

Compare the two options and it is easy to see why a Government already facing a choked legislative programme would smile on Dunne's centro-Christian mix.

That might also explain Dunne's easy and relaxed manner after the first round of talks, compared with the Greens' tense and secretive response.

It is remarkable how quickly the Greens have abandoned their open and friendly approach to the media in favour of near-pathological secrecy - even about the time and place of talks.

Whether or not this is dictated by the instincts of those close to Helen Clark - chief of staff Heather Simpson is always in the frame at such times - it only serves to remind voters of the circus of 1996. Not a great look.

Not that these talks will last anything like nine weeks. Clark wants them wrapped up in two.

United has no reason to drag the chain. And the Greens want to ratify the deal at a conference to be held no more than a month after the election.

However, it is not all one-way traffic for United.

Labour ministers have been swotting up on its policy and are uncovering some landmines.

Of more concern is the fear of what lurks in an untested and unknown caucus: another Alamein Kopu? A tight (Christian?) five who may feel they are backing a Government of the wrong hue? Or an Alliance-style bust-up somewhere down the track, leading to a very Disunited Future?

And if the Opposition is polling well, how loyal will a centrist party be and will it begin turning its face towards an alternative centre-right Government?

All good reasons - as well as the need to preserve long-term relations on the left - for not getting too stroppy with the Greens.

Labour also has some internal tensions to manage.

The left faction considers a combination of Labour and United Future would tilt the balance of the Government to the right and threaten progress on its social policy agenda.

The left is also deeply suspicious of what it sees as a strong moral conservatism in United Future.

On the other hand, a Labour administration too reliant on the Greens could stir the relatively supine rightist faction in the caucus.

Not surprising, then, that Clark is trying to get both supports in place for her Government.

If, as appears likely, Dunne's party is close to a deal it will only be because it is the easier one to close.

Clark will still offer the Greens the chance to come inside the tent.

But with Dunne onside she would be negotiating from a position of even greater strength.

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