Peter Neilson: Work together as climate changes

This week the Government announced a major long-term work programme to come up with policies to manage climate change.

So what?

First some annoying information - what former Vice-President Al Gore is calling "inconvenient truth" in his documentary packing out movie theatres in the United States - on what it could mean at your place.

Imagine the value of the multi-million dollar resanding projects on St Heliers and Mission Bay beaches when the sea level is 30 to 50cm higher - and we're being battered by more severe storms which also hit four times more often? What will your children and grandchildren's inheritance be like in 2030, when the temperature rises another 1C and by 2100 when it is up 2.2C? If you think it doesn't involve you, remember 75 per cent of us alive today will still be here in 2050.

Where will the water come up to at your valuable seaside suburb?

How will farmers cope with salt water intrusion into water systems and eroding coast lines? What will the impacts be of droughts striking two to four times more often than now, specially in eastern areas? What will be the cost of controlling new pests and diseases?

These are some impacts forecast in research by our reputable National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd (Niwa). Its projections are based on the assumption of continued increase in greenhouse gas emissions and use global climate model results.

Uncertainties are associated with both projected greenhouse gas emissions and model calculations but the costs of these impacts are likely to be significant for New Zealand. The February 2004 Manawatu flood cost was about $0.3 billion. The late 1990s droughts cost well over $1 billion.

The magnitude of the costs, and the opportunities, has barely dawned on New Zealanders.

While in some businesses here and in many worldwide, the smart money is already moving behind the view that climate change is happening, little has been done to connect individual Kiwis and most businesses to the issue.

Yet extensive nationwide research by the New Zealand Business Council for Sustainable Development - whose 51 member companies' annual sales equate to 28 per cent of the gross domestic product - shows New Zealanders are prepared to roll their sleeves up and get on with practical things which will make a difference.

The vast majority of New Zealanders don't see climate change as important on its own. But they're determined to preserve the New Zealand quality of life not only for themselves, but for their children and their children. In our down-to-earth style, that means being able to take our kids to the beach and go fishing. Put any other way, it is seen as consultant- or Wellington-speak.

So let's stop annoying ourselves on climate change.

In the short term we can do some bold things - a course the Climate Change Minister is this week urging his Cabinet colleagues to follow - which will quickly make a difference.

Like cleaning up one of the world's oldest and dirtiest car fleets, insulating tens of thousands more of the 40 per cent of our homes which are still draughty, damp and unhealthy, and pouring more money into research on how we reduce methane emissions from farm animals. Measures like this will improve both our health and competitiveness. Paying $100 million a year in cash incentives to people buying fuel efficient, low emission cars, for example, will see 86,000 more of these vehicles (which include the latest 2.7 litre XJ Jaguar) enter the fleet each year. Each year they'll use 86 million litres less fuel less a year - $727 million less during their fleet life and cut emissions by millions of tonnes. The cleaner air will help to lower a $400 million annual bill to treat people suffering from illnesses caused by petrol particle pollution.

We can set a limit on emissions here. We can start issuing tradeable credits to those who cut emissions. (And, why not to you if you put in a solar heater on your home roof, as well as to the business which adopts new low-emission technology?) And we can lead the world with research on new ways to reduce methane emissions from animals and profit from it. Just as we should profit from a new Kiwi invention: algae grown on sewage ponds which can be turned into bio fuel. (Imagine the value of that if it helps stop millions of hectares of land being converted from food to bio fuel crops while the world's population rises from 6.1 to 9.1 billion by 2050?)

What we need now is cross-party agreement on climate change because of the sheer scale of the risks and opportunities. Spokespeople for the National and Green parties have said they would support that.

I'm sure we can get together to seize the opportunities inherent in managing climate change the right way.

* Peter Neilson is the chief executive of the NZ Business Council for Sustainable Development.