Patrick Cockburn: Blind Bush America's version of Comical Ali

COMMENT

FALLUJAH - The destruction of the Chinook helicopter should underline the speed with which the war in Iraq is intensifying: 16 United States soldiers were killed in September, 33 in October and a further 16 in just the first few days of November.

It is also spreading farther north, to the cities of Mosul and Kirkuk.

But even as I was driving to Fallujah, just before the helicopter was brought down there, I heard on the radio President George W. Bush repeat his old mantra that "the Iraqi people understand there are a handful of people who do not want to live in freedom".

It is an extraordinarily active handful. The White House and the Pentagon seem unable to take on board how swiftly the US political and military position in Iraq is deteriorating.

Even after half a dozen rockets hit the al-Rashid Hotel, narrowly missing Paul Wolfowitz, the US Deputy Secretary of Defence and one of the architects of the war in Iraq, US generals in Baghdad were still claiming to incredulous journalists that overall security in Iraq was improving.

In his blindness to military reality, Bush sounds more and more like the much-derided former Iraqi Information Minister, "Comical Ali", still claiming glorious victories as the US Army entered Baghdad.

Every attack is interpreted as evidence that the "remnants" of Saddam's regime are becoming "desperate" at the great progress being made by the US in Iraq.

Two arguments are often produced to downplay the seriousness of the resistance.

One is the "remnants" theory: a small group of Saddam loyalists have created all this turmoil. This is a bit surprising, since the lesson of the war was that Saddam Hussein had few supporters prepared to fight for him. In fact, the "remnants" of the old regime have become greater in number since the end of the war. The US occupation authority has been the main recruiting sergeant.

It has behaved as if Saddam were a popular leader with a mass following. It has dissolved the Iraqi Army, leaving 400,000 trained soldiers without a job, and sacked Baath Party members.

A friend, long in opposition to Saddam, told me: "Two of my brothers were murdered by Saddam, I fled abroad, but now they are going to fire four of my relatives because they were forced to join the Baath Party to keep their jobs."

Another comforting method of downplaying the resistance is to say it is all taking place in the "Sunni triangle". The word "triangle" implies the area is finite and small. In fact, the Sunni Arabs of Iraq live in an area almost the size of England.

Distinguished Iraqi historian and political activist Ghassan Atiyah believes that "if the Sunni Arabs feel they are being made second-class citizens they will permanently destabilise Iraq, just as the Kurds used to do".

Bush's solution to all this is to get Iraqis to fight the resistance. The US-run Coalition Provisional Authority, isolated in its fortified headquarters in Baghdad, says it plans to deploy a force of 222,000 police, military, civil defence and other security organisations by next September.

This sounds impressive. But only 35,000 of these will be troops of the new American-trained Iraqi Army.

The many police on the streets of Baghdad have successfully reduced crime. But in interviews they always make clear that they see their job as protecting ordinary Iraqis from criminals. They have no desire to be pushed into a paramilitary role, for which they are neither trained nor equipped. They do not want to be portrayed as collaborators.

The US can only recruit an effective Iraqi security force if there is a legitimate Iraqi provisional government.

The US could have legitimised the political reconstruction of Iraq in the eyes of Iraqis if it had placed the process under the auspices of the United Nations. Instead it repeatedly rebuffed the idea.

The only way out for the US is to hold elections to create an Iraqi authority which Iraqis know they have chosen themselves.

The failure to create an elected and legitimate Iraqi provisional government, even if it is an interim Administration, will make it impossible for the US to set up a security force that will not be seen as collaborators by most Iraqis.

* Yesterday 18 Americans died in Iraqi guerrilla attacks, including 15 when a helicopter was shot down.

* It was the second deadliest day overall for the US since the invasion of Iraq on March 20.

* The worst daily toll was on March 23 when 28 Americans died, including 11 soldiers in a convoy ambush and 18 Marines.

* Twenty-seven US soldiers have died in just over a week.

* Yesterday's deaths mean 138 US soldiers have died in the past six months.

- INDEPENDENT

Herald Feature: Iraq