KEY POINTS:
All In Black is an appropriate name to support in the first race on a day when they're running fashion prizes at Trentham today.
The promising mare doesn't get the nod simply because of the name - she is the real deal.
All In Black won first-up three
starts back then drew wide and sat wide on her home New Plymouth track next time.
Last start at Ellerslie on January 1 she settled last and flew home late to be beaten one length after a very quick late sectional time in the event. She had 57.5kg that day and drops to 55.5kg here. Coupled with the fact she's probably better this way round than the Ellerslie right-hand track, she looks a good start to the day. Wyban Angel is a threat.
Hard to find a standout in Race 2. We've settled for Jessardo (No 7), who has been running on in reasonable fields in the north lately, certainly as good as this line-up. Some of these might struggle a little with the 2300m, but Richard Collett knows how to get his horses very fit and Jessardo shouldn't have an issue. Zillah's Lad (No 10) could be some value. Tough race.
The Hurdle stable pulled Hitchcock (No 2, R3) out at Manawatu when rain saw a track downgrade. In light of the results that day, that now seems a very smart move. He's a dry tracker and a very good one when fit and fresh as he is here. Good line-up. Cape Point (No 4) might do a couple of things wrong, but he's got talent.
If you've been watching the tennis in Melbourne, Tsonga (No 6, R4) is the topical bet. Yes, the horse was named after the Frenchman after his performance in last year's Australian Open. Tsonga's form this prep is 1126 and the sixth was in a strong form race behind impressive winner Shanzero. He covered some ground on the corner in that and was not that far away. Each way. Resounding (No 1) had to drop back from the outside gate at 1200m at Ellerslie
last start and stormed into second late. He is a horse on the improve. Tsonga gets the nod simply because of the 3kg pull in weights.
TAB bookies have Daffodil (No 1, R5) short at $3.80 for the Stella Artois Desert Gold Stakes. Perhaps they're right, but Glamorous Girl (No 7) each-way at $7 might be at least as good a gamble, perhaps better. Last start Glamorous Girl pushed her stablemate Jungle Boots to a long neck at Ellerslie. Daffodil gives the impression she likes a bit of give in the track and responded well when it rained at Awapuni last start. She won very easily, but if the track comes up very firm tomorrow - we won't know until the first race is run - Glamorous Girl could be the best value bet.
The constant stream of money for weeks out for Vosne Romanee (No 5, R6) has to tell you something. It means he must have come back up well after his last-start second to Mufhasa in the Couplands Bakeries Mile at Riccarton on November 12. That was a huge performance and, thankfully for the connections, there is no Mufhasa this time. Striker (No 10) won't be any pushover though, dropping 1kg from her nice win in last week's Anniversary Handicap.
She toughed that out pretty well and will need to do the same to repel Vosne Romanee. Culminate (No 2) has to be considered despite getting to 56kg against this group one field and Dezigna (No 3) is better placed than he's been for a while.
If you like any of them at $10 in Race 7 don't back off them - it's the toughest race on the day. Swipe (No 4) makes sense. He didn't look happy in those shocking conditions last start at Awapuni and it was only when Buddy Lammas managed to get him out into the middle of the track late that he made any ground. His fifth was probably a good run and he looks better placed here. .
If Stu Manning is right about Katy Keen (No 3, R8) getting rid of her hormonal problems then the mare is going to take all sorts of beating in the Wellington Cup. After being beaten a couple of times, she comes into this race beautifully placed on 55.5kg. She gets weight off Willy Smith (No 1) and Young Centaur (No 2) and, quite frankly, she's better than the rest. If she doesn't fire here she's not in the same form of 12 months ago. The winner of this race
two years ago, Willy Smith (No 1) copped a bagging for being able to finish only fourth in the weight-for-age race on the first day, but he can be forgiven. He's been set for this race and first day race was run at a muddling pace. Look for better here.
And so to Ellerslie tomorrow.
The $1 million Karaka Million is a great betting race, but don't be fooled about the element of luck needed in the race.
They found out years ago in the Golden Slipper in Sydney that when you put up a million dollars in a 1200m dash, luck often ends up deciding the result.
We saw Vincent Mangano come from last to win the race last year and while the scenario might not be exactly the same, there is likely to be similar elements this time.
Which means outside barrier draws might not be such a disadvantage they can sometimes be at Ellerslie.
Katie Lee is deserved favourite, but the likes of Kaaptan and Numero De Lago, neither of whom have won a race, could be enormous value.