Key electorate: Tauranga

By ROSALEEN MacBRAYNE

Three months ago, pundits talked about Tauranga as one of a handful of "super seats" - like Coromandel and Wigram - that might determine if a political party could piggyback into Parliament on the strength of its leader's local following.

Now, it is hardly mentioned, partly because New Zealand First has risen well beyond the 5 per cent threshold to get into Parliament, meaning the heat has gone off Winston Peters to hold Tauranga.

But the seat, which was marginal after the last election, now seems rock solid for Peters.

The New Zealand First leader took a hammering in 1999, when his comfortable 15-year hold on Tauranga was slashed to a precarious 63-vote majority.

Mr Peters had come out of a messy introduction to coalition government New Zealand-style with his credibility savaged and his parliamentary wing in meltdown.

While he may have started this election race on the back foot - his unpopular alignment with National not entirely forgotten or forgiven - he has now hit his stride.

The latest poll in the electorate, published yesterday, has challengers biting the dust.

Mr Peters, on 48.9 per cent support, is trailed distantly by Labour's Margaret Wilson on 13 per cent and National's Tim Macindoe with 10.6 per cent.

The poll of 500 residents, taken on Monday and Tuesday, backs polling by the Herald in May that showed Peters taking 40 per cent of the vote, well ahead of his Labour and National rivals, who registered about 15 per cent.

But this week's poll by the Bay of Plenty Times and Key Research and Marketing shows Labour winning the party vote, taking 32 per cent, over National (23 per cent) and NZ First (18.6 per cent).

Contrary to the belief that Peters' followers are all elderly and mostly women, the backing comes fairly evenly from across age groups and sexes.

Even disbelievers are attracted by the maverick nature of the local MP and grudgingly admire his survival skills.

They know Peters distinguishes Tauranga from other electorates, and his party's "revival" carries with it an upbeat mood. The black and white billboards are back in evidence and the party has a conspicuous, bustling campaign headquarters on the edge of Mid-City Mall.

If the two major parties thought the near-undoing of the Tauranga MP three years ago was anything more than a hiccup, they must be sorely disappointed.

Yesterday's poll showed almost a quarter of the electorate's voters are undecided, but it seems unlikely that will stop a seventh term for Peters.

Local issues such as funding and building roads to relieve congestion, providing cultural and sporting facilities for a rapidly rising population, and stamping out antisocial behaviour, particularly on The Strand and at Mt Maunganui, have not rated in what is a popularity poll.

Ms Wilson and Mr Macindoe have campaigned diligently but they have been left in the shade.

Ms Wilson has had a home base in Tauranga for the past few years, made her presence felt and got behind local concerns. But carrying five portfolios in her first parliamentary term - including Attorney-General, Minister of Labour and Minister of Treaty Settlements - has limited her time for provincial matters.

Voters know she is guaranteed, as a highly placed Labour list MP, to resume her place in Government without taking the Tauranga seat.

Newcomer Mr Macindoe, a young family man and former deputy principal of St Peter's College in Cambridge, has never stood a real chance of reclaiming Tauranga for National.

With all eyes on Jeanette Fitzsimons' fate in neighbouring Coromandel, the Greens are almost a no-show in Tauranga. Their candidate, Ian Douglas, scored 0.6 per cent in the latest poll, level with Act's Ron Scott. United Future's Larry Baldock, a Tauranga district councillor, attracted 1.5 per cent.

Local constituents are attracted by NZ First's three simply identified issues and promises of a quick fix being offered by an ebullient leader still happy to be the MP for Tauranga.

Candidates

Larry Baldock - United Future

Margaret Canter-Leighton - Christian Heritage

Ian Douglas - Greens

Tim Macindoe - National

Garry Oster - Jim Anderton's Progressive Coalition

Winston Peters - New Zealand First

Ron Scott - Act

Russell Watkins - Libertarianz

Margaret Wilson - Labour

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