KEY POINTS:
The door banged shut in Labour's face following Monday's mind-numbingly pessimistic economic forecasts. Labour can thank National's underwhelming tax package for reopening it at least slightly.
In what is still to some degree a hip-pocket election, there is one golden rule: don't disappoint. National's package is bound to
disappoint families on or below the average wage of around $48,000 who get less in tax cuts than working singles or couples without children. The package will surely be treated with suspicion by the 800,000-plus signed up to KiwiSaver.
When John Key announced some months ago that National would be retaining Labour's Working for Families programme, those families would not have imagined they would be disadvantaged when National finally released its tax policy.
Neither will those who joined KiwiSaver be grateful for the effective cut in entitlements.
However, National believes this is no longer a hip-pocket election. It is now about economic credibility. People are worried about the security of their jobs, the security of their savings, the value of their homes and the cost of their mortgages. National believes they are not going to quibble over a few dollars' difference between National and Labour's tax packages.
The priority for National was to produce a package that took account of the gloomy figures in Monday's fiscal update - and the likelihood of them getting even worse.
That meant something had to give. Someone had to miss out. The political equation is simple. National estimates there are around 900,000 voters without children. There are about 380,000 families currently signed up for Working for Families income top-ups. National is punting a fair proportion of the latter will vote for Labour anyway.
They will now. For those families on the average wage, National's tax cut amounts to $41.54 - still nearly $10 more than the equivalent sum in Labour's package, but nearly $9 less than they would have thought they would be getting from National.
For those families earning less than the average wage, the extra amount National is giving over Labour drops to the point where a family on $40,000 is better off with Labour's cuts.
National's argument is that they have already benefited from Working for Families and it was time that working singles and couples who have got nothing from Labour in nine years now deserve something. National would have been better being more open about this.
Instead, the party has thrown Labour a lifeline. Michael Cullen was the veritable pig in muck yesterday. He found so much to criticise, he had to be reminded that he had forgotten to mention National's intention to slow down its plan for extra spending on infrastructure.
Labour is on strong ground in being scathing about the absence of new economic initiatives from what was billed as being more than just a tax package. If the election is about economic credibility, then the rescue plan will have to consist of more than amending the Resource Management Act or Key calling in public service chief executives for a stern chat.