John Armstrong: Leader careful not to create a maverick

Demoted Labour MP Chris Carter attempts to avoid the media as he leaves Parliament. Photo / Mark Mitchell

When your leader sends you home from Parliament and tells you to consider your political future, you should assume you probably haven't got one.

Despite getting such an extraordinary and unwelcome missive from Phil Goff - along with orders to take stress leave - Chris Carter clearly still believes there is a role for him in the Labour caucus which goes beyond merely making up the numbers on the party's back benches.

Thus did Goff's effective ultimatum that Carter shape up or ship out finally draw the unreserved apology to the public that the MP should have issued last week in the wake of revelations about his excessive use of his taxpayer-funded credit card when he was a minister in the Labour Cabinet.

Had he not got the required apology yesterday, Goff would have immediately demoted Carter even further down the Labour caucus rankings than he had already done on Monday when he stripped him of his prized shadow foreign affairs portfolio and his seat on Labour's front bench.

Ruthless in its execution - Goff is using the fallout over Labour's credit card embarrassment to project himself as tough and decisive - the Labour leader's stratagem was not risk free.

The last thing Labour needs is to create a thorn in its side by turning Carter into a backbench maverick who has nothing to lose in criticising the party's leadership. Neither would Labour want Carter's resignation from Parliament. That would force a byelection in his Te Atatu seat - a byelection Labour would be under huge pressure to win.

On the first score, the Labour leadership is confident Carter is too loyal to the party to become a rebel. On the second, Carter's response to Goff's ultimatum suggests he wants to stay in Parliament at least until next year's election.

Having been in Parliament for 17 years, six years as as minister, Carter, however, probably feels he is being singled out as someone to be sacrificed in order for Labour to continue regenerating itself.

That may explain his perverse, self-destructive behaviour, particularly his refusal to be upfront and acknowledge public unhappiness with his spending on overseas travel.

Yesterday was the day Carter should have fronted to Labour's caucus meeting clad in a hair shirt with an apology in hand. Instead of contrition, his exasperated colleagues got a mixture of denial and defiance.

Afterwards, Carter was advised to make a public apology in front of journalists waiting outside the caucus room. He didn't. He was warned that failure to do so would only see him being hounded by the media. That was exactly what happened.

His patience exhausted, Goff applied the shock treatment which finally brought Carter to his senses.

But the tough talk could rebound on Goff. Whereas Monday's demotions of Carter, Shane Jones and Mita Ririnui worked in Goff's favour image-wise, yesterday's disciplining of Carter was a messy exercise.

To his credit, Goff did not try to put a gloss on the day's near-farcical developments, describing them as "unfortunate" both for Carter and Labour.

Therein lies the danger to Goff and Labour - that the fracas with Carter is viewed by the public as evidence of discord and disunity which indicates Labour is in no fit condition to take back the reins of government.