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Home / New Zealand

<i>John Armstrong:</i> Govt keeps its options open - and refuses to say what they are

By John Armstrong
NZ Herald·
15 Jan, 2009 03:00 PM3 mins to read

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Opinion by

KEY POINTS:

Those expecting some quick-fix palliatives to help the private sector weather the deepening recession will be heartily disappointed by what emerged from yesterday's much-heralded meeting of senior Cabinet ministers.

But then those calling for immediate action to follow the ministerial stock-take of the economy were always going to be disappointed.

The six-member cabal of ministers with economic policy responsibilities discussed what is said to have been a 52-page document drawn up by officials listing a host of crisis measures which could be implemented.

But the Prime Minister pointedly refused to give even a hint as to what those options might be when he spoke after the meeting.

John Key was a little more forthcoming - though not that much more forthcoming - about things the Government will not be doing, such as privatising state-owned enterprises.

The country will have to wait until next month when Key unveils a range of initiatives to assist small and medium-sized enterprises in what is being billed as an important speech on the economy in the lead-up to the Prime Minister's summit on employment later in the month.

Yesterday's reticence was very deliberate. It opened the door to Labour to claim the lack of detail pointed to a Government still lacking any coherent plan to save jobs despite layoffs being predicted to escalate dramatically over coming months.

National, however, is prepared to take a few hits from Labour now when the recession has still to bite hard so it can keep some substantial measures up its sleeve for when things get really difficult.

This strategy may look self-serving. But any government would want to preserve its flexibility especially when it is not entirely clear beyond ever-worsening Treasury forecasts and highly-pessimistic surveys of business confidence exactly what will be happening in coming months.

National's plan might be better termed a "work in progress" which will remain shrouded from public view, its make-up progressively revealed when ministers are ready to do so.

In the meantime, Key is trying to deflect Labour's criticism by labelling the kind of immediate package of measures that the party is calling for as a short-term "sugar fix" which would have no lasting impact on the health of the economy.

Apart from simple politics, the Government's unwillingness to spell out possible initiatives is also driven by questions of affordability given the fast-deteriorating Government accounts.

Yesterday's ministerial meeting was told the economy is now running close to the "downside" scenario modelled by the Treasury last month. Apart from predicting even more job losses, the downside scenario would see an even bigger blow-out in Government debt than already forecast.

Unhappy with existing projections, credit-rating agency Standard & Poor's has already fired a shot across the Government's bows, effectively warning that New Zealand risks a costly ratings downgrade.

That imposes even tighter constraints on how much Finance Minister Bill English can borrow to soften the impact of the recession.

Key talked ethereally about "finding the right balance" between borrowing too much and provoking a downgrade and borrowing too little and people really feeling the "rough edges" of recession.

However, he acknowledged that the potential debt blow-out intensified the pressure on the Cabinet's expenditure control committee to come up with even more savings to free up cash to make it easier to find that balance.

The search for savings in public spending threatens to shift National into new and far less comfortable political territory, however.

Little wonder then that the Government is playing its cards close to its chest.

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