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Home / New Zealand

<i>John Armstrong:</i> Fired-up Key wasting no time in sewing up his deals

By John Armstrong
NZ Herald·
10 Nov, 2008 03:00 PM3 mins to read

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Opinion by

KEY POINTS:

Post-election talks on the make-up of a new Government can be Parliament's equivalent of watching paint dry, at least during their early stages.

For days on end, minor party leaders and their advisers troop in and out of private meetings with the major party which is holding the whip hand in forming a Government.

Each meeting is always described by the participants afterwards as "constructive". Little else is said.

Detail about who is going to get what does not become public until coalition or support agreements are ready to be signed. Mercifully, this time things seem to be different.

National is in a hurry to get a Government up-and-running.

The annual Apec summit is in Peru at the end of next week. John Key says he wants to go. This has effectively become the deadline for National to sew up a coalition deal or support arrangement with Act and Peter Dunne's United Future.

But things seem to be moving faster than that.

Day One of talks yesterday brought formal confirmation from Rodney Hide that Act will definitely throw its support behind what looks like being a National minority Government.

This was not a huge advance, given Hide had been saying that for months and repeated it just before talks with John Key and Bill English yesterday afternoon.

But it is identifiable progress. It is also likely more progress is being made on the detail of prospective agreements than Key, Hide and Dunne were letting on yesterday.

Key and Hide, however, were more forthcoming than is usually the case.

Act will probably not go into formal coalition with National. It may instead take ministerial posts outside the Cabinet. That would guarantee support for National on confidence and supply motions but enable Act to criticise Government policy.

Dunne was more circumspect after his meeting with Key and English. His negotiating leverage had already been reduced by his party no longer being willing to back a Labour-led Administration.

That was compensated by a promise from Key of a ministerial post. But Saturday's election slashed Dunne's leverage even further.

National and Act have enough seats combined to run a Government. Dunne's vote is surplus to requirements.

Act does not have that much leverage either. That evaporated with the party's advance assurance it too would back a National Government.

Moreover, Hide and his party have nowhere else to go but National. If it were to pull out of negotiations, there is always the Maori Party, with whom National begins talks this morning.

But Act and United Future do have some things going in their favour.

First, Key does not want his Government to get off to a poor start with resentment and acrimony among its components. It is important that National does not flex its muscle to the extent that it causes Act and United Future to lose face.

Second, Key wants to get his Government off to a flying start. He needs the two smaller parties' help to do that.

Third, a looser arrangement than coalition means Act and United Future would not be bound to support Government legislation. That will enable them to strike deals which see them getting concessions from National in return for their votes.

Fourth, and most crucial of all, National is looking to the longer term when it will not find it so easy to put a Government together as this time.

Key wants to build long-term "relationships of mutual respect" with other parties. He will not achieve that by trampling all over those parties in the current talks.

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Opinion

What should John Key do first?

09 Nov 10:16 PM
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