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Home / New Zealand

<i>John Armstrong:</i> A miracle is the only thing that can save Labour now

NZ Herald
5 Nov, 2008 03:00 PM3 mins to read

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KEY POINTS:

It feels like it is all over, red rover.

The shouting won't stop completely until campaigning has to come to a halt tomorrow evening. But rarely has the final week of an election campaign been so flat and devoid of any sense of a fight. Rarely has it seemed as if everyone is now merely going through the motions until Saturday finally rolls around.

That was the case before the last act of the American presidential election relegated its New Zealand counterpart way down yesterday's news bulletins.

The feeling of fait accompli was apparent before today's Herald-DigiPoll survey, which has a clear majority of voters rating a National-led Government as better equipped than Labour to handle the economy, with even more voters thinking National is going the win the election.

The prevailing mood was summed up by a reporter's question to John Key yesterday: Did he sense a landslide? The reporter wasn't talking about a Labour one.

Key wisely declined to take the bait.

However, the widespread feeling among those observing this election with no axe to grind is that over the last week the election has slipped away from Labour. The pervading question is no longer whether Labour has any chance of winning. It is now the margin by which National will win.

As she demonstrated in last night's final leaders' debate, Helen Clark will not give up. Even so, the oomph and drive seem to have evaporated from Labour's campaign. It is telling that Clark will concentrate her last two days of campaigning on those areas of Auckland where the Labour vote is traditionally strong. Rather than taking the fight to National, this seems more of a defensive move to ensure that vote comes out on the day.

There was another telling little sign on Tuesday when requests to photograph the final Cabinet meeting before the election were refused. The fear of Last Supper-style headlines perhaps? Indeed - unless Labour still has something big up its sleeve to land on Key at the last minute - the party does not have much left to deploy but prayer.

It must be praying that this is one of those elections which turns out to be a complete upset and a subterranean mood for continuity goes undetected until the results come in.

The example cited in the Beehive is last year's Irish election in which the ruling party and controversial PM Bertie Ahern staged a remarkable comeback to hold on to power.

The similarities with New Zealand were that Ahern had been in office for 10 years and the Irish public, while wanting change, did not want that much change.

The difference was that Ahern's election campaign generated fresh momentum for his party, while minor parties, like the Greens, got smashed. For Labour here, it's time to call in Lazarus.

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