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Home / New Zealand

<i>John Armstong:</i> Dignified Brash forestalls messy coup

23 Nov, 2006 11:14 AM3 mins to read

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Opinion

KEY POINTS:

When the end came, it was death with dignity. Don Brash put his leadership of the National Party out of its misery and euthanased it before someone did it for him.

Rather than clinging on to the bitter end - as most leaders do - Dr Brash has
saved the party the messy leadership coup that was going to topple him sooner or later.

He has also saved the party months of embarrassment that was going to follow the publication of The Hollow Men, Nicky Hager's brutal exposé of the inner workings of the National Party.

Dr Brash's botched attempt to suppress the book was the final blow to his leadership. Previously supportive colleagues started to drift away.

He is understood to have been given the clear message by some that he should quit.

That still left the book hanging over him, his colleagues and the wider party. Its contents are dynamite.

While Dr Brash could not save himself, he has thrown himself over this ticking bomb.

He will cop the full blast from its publication, which might finally happen today if the lawyers can agree. If so, the book's revelations will fill the weekend media.

Come Monday, however, the media will be moving on.

Dr Brash will be gone, taking much of the book's relevance with him. Come Monday and the special caucus meeting, National will have a new leader.

That leader will start with a clean slate.

While Hager has suggested John Key will be embarrassed by the references to his contacts with the Exclusive Brethren before last year's election, a reading of the book suggests otherwise.

A lot of people are going to be a lot more embarrassed than Mr Key, whose patience as heir apparent has been vindicated.

The risk for Mr Key was that a coup would end the uneasy truce between caucus factions that propped up Dr Brash because they collectively preferred he keep the job than it go to a rival.

Dr Brash's other main contribution in departing was thus to end that stalemate surrounding who succeeds him and force the issue.

There was some suspicion yesterday that his timing of the special caucus meeting for Monday is designed to help Mr Key by giving Bill English, the only other viable contender, only three days to lobby colleagues. Mr English was considering his options last night.

But with Gerry Brownlee publicly backing Mr Key's candidacy in exchange for retaining the deputy's job, the numbers have already swung in behind Mr Key.

A Key-English ticket would be the "dream team" for National. However, Mr English does not want to be deputy to Mr Key, while Mr Key is thought not to want Mr English as his deputy.

Mr English will likely demand the shadow finance portfolio. Mr Key would be wise to agree. He needs Mr English's political experience, rigorous analytical skills and grasp of policy development working for him.

While giving Dr Brash the finance portfolio would keep the ex-leader in Parliament, the leadership change is an opportunity for a complete break from the past and to really take the fight to a tiring Labour team.

Mr Key may get the job on Monday without challenge. But there will be some tough talking and hard negotiating along National's front bench over the weekend.

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