Editorial: Warning signs for Mideast hardliners

If President Clinton has brought Israeli and Palestinian leaders to their senses overnight, it would be a remarkable achievement. Neither side yesterday was inclined to make the kind of concessions that could stop the street fighting of the past three weeks.

But whatever the outcome of the urgent talks at Sharm el-Sheikh, it begins to appear that there are now too many Palestinians, and maybe Israelis too, who are determined to bring about a bloody resolution of their 50-year-old conflict.

There is frustration on both sides with the arrangements made since the Oslo peace accords. When Israel's leading hardliner, Ariel Sharon, took his walk in one of Jerusalem's disputed sacred sites three weeks ago, he may have intended only to demonstrate his disregard for the latest round of negotiations. But he touched off a Palestinian response that probably has taken even him by surprise.

Riots in the Palestinian territories of the West Bank and Gaza were met by Israeli heavy artillery and helicopters. To Jewish surprise and dismay, Arab citizens of Israel have this time sympathised with the Palestinians.

So, perhaps, has world opinion. After 19 days of street fighting, 102 people have been killed, all but seven of them Palestinians. Yet there seems to be no stopping the new intifada, as Palestinians are calling it. Nightly, the news brings scenes of stone-throwing youths charging the automatic rifles of Israeli soldiers. President Yasser Arafat would have difficulty enforcing any deal he might do.

So far, despite the death toll and the heavy weapons put on the streets, the Israeli response has been restrained. Having issued one deadline for the violence to stop, and failing to enforce it for more than a couple of days, Prime Minister Ehud Barak will be under intense pressure at home to crack down more decisively. But he and his hard-line political opponents surely know that a merciless response to the uprising would antagonise Israel's neighbours and undo years of diplomatic work that has brought recognition of Israel and enhanced its security.

It could even bring some of those countries into conflict with Israel once more. That would bring the United States into play behind Israel and increase the danger of oil embargoes and indiscriminate terrorism against the West.

The world has witnessed this pattern of escalation before. It is the reason the Palestinian problem is never far from the headlines.

Until Palestinian aspirations can be accommodated within or alongside the state of Israel, there will be no peace in the Middle East and no release for the West from the threats that arise from Arab resentment.

Those in Israel who continually undermine negotiations towards a lasting settlement need to be reminded forcefully that they are endangering other countries' interests, too.

This crisis could prove to be a turning point in the Middle East. Israel is not about to be abandoned, but it can no longer count on uncritical support. Its immediate neighbours look more reasonable these days. President Arafat settled at Oslo for a small proportion of the land his people claim.

Britain and France supported a United Nations Security Council resolution last weekend blaming Israel for the crisis, deploring Mr Sharon's "provocation" and condemning Israel's "excessive use of force."

Once, Israel could have counted on the United States to veto a resolution such as that. Last weekend, the US abstained.

That was the gentlest of hints to hardliners in Israel, and it probably encouraged Mr Arafat to hold out for whatever gains the crisis may bring to his cause. Let's hope he, too, does not try to overplay his hand.

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