Editorial: Reluctant leader's hard task

The art of guerilla warfare demands resilience in body and spirit. Xanana Gusmao, the winner of East Timor's first presidential election, has it in spades. Captured by the Indonesians in 1992, he not only continued to campaign for East Timorese independence during seven years in a Jakarta jail but learned to paint and to speak four languages. Mr Gusmao now faces an even sterner test. With the long and bloody struggle for freedom won, he will, from May 20, guide the world's newest nation into a highly uncertain future.

Mr Gusmao starts with the advantage implicit in the securing of almost 83 per cent of the presidential poll. As an independence hero, he is extremely popular. That gives him moral authority under a constitution based on checks and balances and demanding co-operation with former Fretilin colleagues who now dominate Parliament. But Mr Gusmao's relationship with the Chief Minister, Mari Alkatiri, is frosty, and the task of restoring East Timor from the ashes will only add to the strains.

Problems abound at seemingly every turn. Twenty-four years of often brutal Indonesian rule was not only deeply divisive but did little to foster the economy or an educated workforce. In the end, civil war virtually destroyed the country's infrastructure. East Timor remains largely a land of impoverished subsistence farmers.

Three years of United Nations administration has kick-started the rebuilding process. Much of the aid workforce will, however, pack up and leave next month. East Timor faces nationhood with a drastic shortage of trained men and women to fill key roles in the bureaucracy and the legal system.

This situation is exacerbated by the continuing absence of many East Timorese in West Timor. Only genuine national reconciliation will draw them back. Mr Gusmao seems well aware that he is the key figure in that process and, encouragingly, will press Parliament for amnesties for his one-time enemies.

Equally, Mr Gusmao's charisma will be vital in keeping the fledgling nation afloat economically. The prospects are not bright. The UN withdrawal will rob East Timor of the important catalyst of reconstruction, development and humanitarian aid. In the short term, it must rely on the continued goodwill of international agencies and attracting private investment. Mr Gusmao's international standing is important if East Timor is not to become a forgotten backwater. Happily, both he and Fretilin have espoused policies that will not alarm or discourage outside interest.

East Timor has one long-term trump card, the wealth of oil and gas in the Timor Sea. The 90-10 split wrenched from Australia last year will provide $8.5 billion over 20 years from 2004 - perhaps substantially more if East Timor hangs tough on its royalty demand for the biggest field. But even this will not be enough for the country to be viable. It needs to keep the rest of the world involved and investing in projects that will develop its coffee industry and, potentially, tourism.

Many guerilla leaders, having fulfilled their immediate ambition, struggle to make the transition to leader or statesman. For them, the task of rebuilding a nation is simply too prosaic. Mr Gusmao is a reluctant leader; he has said that he would rather be a farmer. Yet in recognising that, at this time, he is vital to the forging of nationhood, he has enhanced his stature. Now the key to establishing stability and unity in the independent Republic of Timor Lorosa'e resides with him.

Obstacles sufficient to test the resolve of any leader litter his path. This will be the acid test of Mr Gusmao's resilience.

Feature: Indonesia and East Timor

CIA World Factbook: Indonesia (with map)

Dept. of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia

Antara news agency

Indonesian Observer

The Jakarta Post

UN Transitional Administration in E Timor

East Timor Action Network