Editorial: Political farce, but no early election

Talk of an early election has become routine for politicians and commentators about this time every three years, which is remarkable because early elections have been rare in New Zealand's living memory. There have been just two - in 1951, when a National Government was returned with an increased majority, and in 1984, when National was tipped out of office.

If there is a lesson to be drawn from such limited experience, it is that a government needs a very good excuse to trouble the voters before its term is up. In 1951 people clearly saw the waterfront disruption as a national crisis and endorsed the Government's response. In 1984 they were not so moved by Sir Robert Muldoon's frustrations as he tried to preserve a parliamentary majority.

If this Government were to call an election at this stage, it could only be for much the same reason Sir Robert did. The Alliance has ruptured and its former leader is performing a ridiculous pretence in Parliament to avoid giving up his seat. It emerged this week that Jim Anderton's new party will be called Progressive Coalition, although he will have nothing overtly to do with it until the House rises for the election. Then, he says, he would be prepared to lead it.

How long this nonsense can continue is anybody's guess. It is an embarrassment to both parties in the Government because together they passed the Electoral (Integrity) Amendment Act that makes Mr Anderton's contortions necessary. It is hard to recall when a Government was so deliciously hoist by its own petard. The Opposition has had an enjoyable week.

But the farce is probably not going to force an early election. The Prime Minister will not risk the sense of crisis and failure that an early election can cause in a country unaccustomed to them. Even if she was confident the electorate would accept the reason and return Labour to office, she has no reason to give up six months of a second term.

For that is the real risk. A full term runs for three years from the date of the election, give or take a few weeks. The timing may be immaterial to the result this year - all the polls point to Labour's return - but sooner or later the tide will turn and when it does the Government will want to go to the bitter end. Almost all of them do.

In kindred countries, such as Australia and Britain, newly elected and popular Governments often call an early poll to capitalise on the mood and extend their life. It is strange that there is no such habit here.

The speculation, though, has become routine at this stage of the election cycle ever since the adoption of proportional representation. Well before the 1996 and 1999 elections there was good reason to wonder whether the Government could last. MPs were scrambling to form new parties for their own survival in a new and unpredictable system. Three years later the first Coalition had split and National had cobbled together a desperate replacement.

Something of the same has happened now, although nobody has physically left the Coalition. Mr Anderton and his caucus supporters remain in it; so do Laile Harre and hers. The Greens continue to lend support.

Election speculation becomes fairly desperate when it rests on the possible resignation of an Opposition MP. Refused selection by National for the Helensville seat, Brian Neeson said this week that he might resign and force a byelection. But then again, he might not, in case it gives Labour an excuse to go early, he said. That would be one of the weaker excuses imaginable.

In truth nobody wants to go early. Not Labour, though its president says it is ready, not National, which is plainly not ready, not the small parties that might perish, and probably not voters, who won't be panicked.