KEY POINTS:
Before this week is out America may have settled on at least one of the presidential candidates to stand for election in November. Arizona Senator John McCain emerged from the Florida primary last week with the clear support of Republican voters, an endorsement from former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, who withdrew from the race, and every prospect now of taking the lion's share of votes from the 22 states that will hold their primaries simultaneously on Wednesday, our time.
On the evidence of the campaign so far, Senator McCain would make a fine President. New Zealanders will recall his meeting with Foreign Minister Winston Peters in Washington when he seemed to be expressing enthusiasm for a free-trade agreement before Mr Peters had New Zealand reporters ejected. Senator McCain appeals more generally because once he takes a position he stands by it even if it is not what an audience wants to hear.
In Michigan, where motor manufacturing is in decline, he had the courage to tell worried voters, "The old jobs are not coming back". He has taken a great deal of flak from his Republican rivals for an unsuccessful immigration bill he co-sponsored with Democrat Senator Ted Kennedy. He holds some liberal views on other issues that worry conservative commentators, who warn his nomination could "destroy" the party.
But Florida, where only Republicans could vote in the party's primary, proved that he can hold its base even as he appeals more than his rivals across party lines. Indeed, national polls suggest he is the only Republican capable of beating either of the leading Democrats, fellow senators Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, in November.
Senator McCain appears to have few natural political attributes. He is elderly, not particularly charismatic, not a stirring speaker, not incisive in the television debates carried in this country. He is rated a war hero, having been taken prisoner in Vietnam and refusing release ahead of fellow captives, but does not make too much of it.
Republicans and independent voters in open primaries must be attracted to the courage and consistency of his positions, a contrast to his nearest rival, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who has revised views he held in the state office. It contrasts also with his likely Democrat opponent, Senator Clinton, who once supported the Iraq invasion.
Senator McCain has maintained support for the war and argued from the beginning that it required a bigger force than President George W. Bush had committed. The improvement in Iraq since the troop "surge" last year vindicates him. The next President's first task will be to seek a lasting solution in Iraq without losing the delicate order recently established there.
A President McCain seems suited to both needs. He could win the confidence of countries whose assistance the US will need, without losing the credibility of its larger troop commitment.
On the other global issues of moment, climate change and economic health, Senator McCain's positions are less clear. A successful conclusion of the Doha trade negotiating round would be a stimulus to the world economy and he seems the candidate most likely and capable of pursuing that. With protectionist sentiment infecting the Democrat Party at present, a Clinton or Obama presidency must be counted unlikely to advance world trade on any front.
The compressed schedule of primaries now means the party nominees are evident long before the conventions in mid-year, and just as well. Voters are reportedly weary already of the selection contests. It has been a gruelling month for all candidates for the world's most powerful post. It is a test of integrity above all. Senator McCain could win it.
