Megawati Sukarnoputri has achieved an unusual feat by Indonesian standards. Her elevation to the presidency was not accompanied by the bloodshed that normally marks a change of ruler in the world's fourth-most-populous country. Unseating the ineffectual Abdurrahman Wahid was, however, the easy part. Mrs Megawati now faces the sternest of
tests in a country afflicted by economic paralysis, separatist unrest and constitutional chaos.
The task would be hugely daunting for the most astute of leaders. But Mrs Megawati is not only politically inexperienced but showed little of substance during her 19 months as Vice-President. Furthermore, her elevation is due largely to the armed forces and figures from the corrupt Suharto era.
Thus it is highly questionable that she will pursue Dr Wahid's attempted military reforms and challenges to vested interests, or that she will resist the determination of military officers to crush separatist rebellions in Aceh and Irian Jaya.
In Mrs Megawati's favour is her popularity among Indonesia's urban poor and students. Her Democratic Party of Struggle is by far the largest faction in the legislature, even if well short of a majority. This popular support may help her rekindle the powers of the presidency in the wake of the military's refusal to obey Dr Wahid.
And her party's popularity may, in the best-possible scenario, allow the presidential and parliamentary wings of Indonesia's vexed system of government to be pointed in the same direction.
The immediate prospect is for a calmer Indonesia. Mrs Megawati's status as the daughter of the country's founding President guarantees short-term stability. But it also carries the burden of expectation. Her support will dissipate if Indonesia's economy continues to crumble.
The damage can, however, be repaired only through the reining in of vested interests. If this is not done, corruption will flourish. Likewise, the armed forces must be brought under control. If neither task is accomplished, Mrs Megawati will be just a figurehead, and Indonesia will take a turn for the worse.
Feature: Indonesia
CIA World Factbook: Indonesia (with map)
Dept. of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia
Antara news agency
Indonesian Observer
The Jakarta Post
UN Transitional Administration in E Timor
East Timor Action Network
