Editorial: Maori threat will make Labour work

The first flush of youth delivers euphoria, excitement and enthusiasm in equal measure. So it is with the Maori Party, which, having won the Te Tai Hauauru byelection, continues to be buoyed by a groundswell of support.

Sometimes, in the way of youth, the enthusiasm can get out of hand. As, for example, when the Tainui co-chairman Tukoroirangi Morgan claimed that five Waikato iwi had cut ties with the Labour Party.

Sometimes, also, the euphoria can pay too little heed to niceties, such as the fact that the next general election is quite a way off. And that much will happen between now and then. Nonetheless, it is undeniable that the Maori Party's first steps have been impressive.

The soundings from the Te Tai Tokerau electorate, reported in yesterday's Herald, represent one gauge. According to the Ngapuhi chairman, Sonny Tau, there has been an unprecedented swing behind the party.

Support for the Maori Party was, he said, "quite heightened at this point". Most pertinently of all, Mr Tau said that backing for the party was now starting to cut deeper than the one issue.

That issue is, of course, the seabed and foreshore legislation. It is a powerful beacon for Maori, encapsulating the clash between customary rights and Labour's instinct for public ownership.

If single issues are rarely sufficient to sustain a political force, the foreshore is at least a powerful birthright. A far more cogent reason, in fact, for an independent Maori political force than the personal disenchantment that lay behind the likes of Mana Motuhake. But if the heat goes out of the foreshore issue, the party must have a slate of policies that will appeal to middle Maori.

Given the varying aspirations that are held within Maoridom for this undertaking _ some, for example, want it to promote Maori sovereignty _ that will be no small task.

Most logically, the Maori Party's best chance of wielding influence lies in holding the balance of power after the next election.

That is not beyond the realms of possibility if it could sweep all seven Maori seats, and secure some list seats into the bargain. Of course, all minor parties dream of just such a scenario. Few realise it.

Maori voters must decide whether their best chance of achieving influence lies in securing that balance through their own independent force or by maintaining their allegiance to Labour.

Part of that question may be answered by the performance of Labour's Maori MPs between now and the election. In the main, theirs has been a low-key presence on the Government benches.

They have done little to inspire Maori voters. Indeed, one beneficial effect of the Maori Party will be the way it makes them lift their game, and their profiles. If not, the survival of the likes of Dover Samuels in Te Tai Tokerau may be doubtful.

A Maori abandonment of Labour en bloc would not be unprecedented, of course. New Zealand First was the previous beneficiary.

And if the outcome on that occasion was far from satisfactory for Maori, the blame might be attributed largely to the machinations of Winston Peters. If so, that experience would not seem a sufficient reason for discouraging another exodus from Labour.

It would, however, be folly to extrapolate the current outpouring of support for the Maori Party to a clean sweep of seats next year. The party has too much to do in terms of organisation and policy.

A good start has been made; the joint leadership of Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples is strong, and astute enough to leave it to each electorate party branch to determine its own candidate. This will help to avoid disagreements as well as provide a degree of autonomy.

But tribal politics are traditionally factional. And already there has been evidence that not everything is going the Maori Party's way.

The Ratana Church has said it is sticking with Labour, and some Maori leaders have stressed that whatever the enthusiasm of the likes of Mr Morgan, their runanga are apolitical. Thus, it will be up to individuals to make their choice. Right now, Labour appears to have work to do to hold their votes.