KEY POINTS:
Every general election, the so-called minor parties have an awkward problem. Should they align themselves with one of the major parties before polling day, or keep open their options for post-ballot negotiations? The Greens have opted for the former course in declaring Labour their preferred coalition partner.
This
contrasts strongly with the Maori Party, which has taken care to position itself to negotiate with whichever main party is capable of forming the next government.
The divide may seem odd, given that the natural partner for both parties is Labour, an inclination shared by most of the people who vote for them. Clearly, there are certain risks in the Maori Party approach. These, however, are outweighed by the benefits that could flow from its superior tactical acumen.
The Greens have sought to portray their decision as a triumph of honesty and transparency. They examined 12 key policy areas before judging whether they believed Labour or National had "the best policies for New Zealanders now and in the future".
The Greens adopted the same policy in 2005, only to be shut out of government as Labour put together deals with New Zealand First and United Future - parties that, paradoxically, were supported by National-leaning voters. Their only consolation was a few policy gains based on their agreement to abstain on confidence and supply.
The Greens' hopes that the same will not happen again hinge on the demise of NZ First. On blue-sky days, they see themselves as part of a governing coalition built around Labour, the Maori Party and themselves. Throw in a few cloudy realities, however, and their pre-poll decision to embrace Labour has much more to do with making a strong polling statement by not scaring off potential Green voters.
Many of these, the Greens assume, would be alienated by any prospect of their being part of a deal that put National in government.
Much the same has customarily been thought of Maori Party supporters. Indeed, the accusation that a vote for the Maori Party would be a vote for a National Government was levelled in 2005 and is again being voiced. The Maori Party, like the Greens, was cold-shouldered by Labour three years ago, when Helen Clark described it as the last cab off the rank in post-election negotiations. If it wins all seven Maori electorates this time, it will be far from that.
The ground for negotiating with either of the main parties has been prepared, with co-leaders Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples stressing constantly that, in terms of achieving Maori aspirations, they should be talking to everyone. Relations between the Maori Party and National have also improved considerably. This has led to more and more Maori Party supporters indicating less resistance to helping National form a government.
The Maori Party says it will consult its membership on how it should proceed in negotiations with other parties. Essentially, those members will be asked whether they wish to make gains for the Maori people as part of the next government, or to stand on the sidelines for the next three years.
The Greens have indicated their willingness to be out of the game. The Maori Party is being much more pragmatic. It has recognised that independence adds to its bargaining power.
The Greens, for their part, have relinquished any such clout. After earlier statements about their intention not to be "anyone's lackey", they are, again, perilously close to being just that. They can talk about honesty, but not political astuteness. The Maori Party has become far the more likely to decide the composition of the next government - with all the rewards that implies.
