Editorial: Lessons from tyro versus veteran poll

Time was when New Zealand political parties pored over the results of Australian general elections. Our transtasman neighbour was thought to provide a valuable guide to party prospects and general voting trends. If the Labor Party did well in Australia, its counterpart here could take heart. To a significant extent, that will not be the case when Australians go to the polls on October 9. While the two countries still retain much in common, they have taken different paths in the past few years, particularly on foreign policy and defence. This divergence means Australians and New Zealanders no longer share quite so many of the same concerns on polling day.

Most obviously, Australia has slipped comfortably into the role of United States deputy-sheriff, earning itself a free-trade agreement in the process. This election will be Australians' first opportunity to express an opinion on their country's participation in the invasion of Iraq. Polls suggest a clear majority now believe the war was not justified. But, equally, they were unimpressed by the pledge of the Labor Party leader, Mark Latham, to bring Australian troops home by Christmas. Australians, having committed, however erroneously, to Iraq, do not, it seems, want to be seen as quitters.

The Prime Minister, John Howard, will, in fact, seek to make capital from the closer ties with the US, even though a price in Australian lives has already been paid in Bali. Making a virtue of what are potentially vices will, indeed, be a formula of his campaign. He will accentuate trust, even while it is alleged that in the lead-up to the 2001 election, he knowingly perpetuated the lie that children were thrown overboard from a boat loaded with asylum seekers. And he will stress his three terms in power, even while Mr Latham, 22 years his junior, puts the case that his Administration has become tired and stale.

In this latter context, and in an upside-down sort of way, the Australian election may have a touch of relevance here. Somewhat perversely, given their clearly defined political differences, Helen Clark's Government can probably learn much from Mr Howard's campaign. Like Australia's Liberals, the Labour Party will next year seek to extend a lengthy period in power. It will make a similar appeal to the electorate, placing a heavy emphasis on economic stewardship through a period of prolonged benignity. And, like the Liberals, it will warn against changing a proven formula.

There is another similarity. As Mr Howard faces a relative tyro in the shape of Mr Latham, so Helen Clark will try to stress the political inexperience of the National Party leader, Don Brash. The closeness of the polls in Australia suggests the campaign will be all-important. Mr Howard will seek to apply pressure to Mr Latham with the aim of extracting boo-boos to match the "home by Christmas" statement. Dr Brash can expect nothing less.

Mr Howard also shares with Helen Clark a liking for staking out and securing the middle ground in politics. Both have built long careers on an instinctive feel for the concerns of their compatriots. Both have been prepared to shift ground quickly if a policy threatens to have a major electoral backlash, although Iraq has been one occasion on which Mr Howard has been prepared to put himself out on a limb. It could yet prove his undoing.

In some ways, therefore, the Liberals and the New Zealand Labour Party find themselves in similar circumstances. If, indeed, Australian voters decide it is time for a change and opt for a new face, there may be the odd tremor in Labour ranks. At the moment, a variety of polls suggest that Labor holds a slender lead. But Mr Latham, like Dr Brash, has still to show that he is adroit enough, and astute enough, to overcome a seasoned politician.

There may yet be lessons in the October 9 poll. The light will, however, be refracted. The two countries have moved further apart in the past few years than at any other time in their histories. That drift will create the prism through which the Australian election is seen in this country.