KEY POINTS:
Tension is high over tonight's Tri-Nations decider between the All Blacks and Australia. Some of this relates to retaining the Bledisloe Cup, which New Zealanders have come to regard as the second most important of rugby trophies. But much more of the worry is about what the match
means as a dress rehearsal for a far more significant prize, rugby's World Cup, the Webb Ellis Trophy.
Many commentators fret about the need for a dominating All Black performance and the establishment of a psychological advantage.
Yet history suggests the influence of this test can be easily overstated. An equal measure of gravitas was placed on previous Eden Park showdowns between the two teams when World Cup semifinal confrontations beckoned.
In 1991, the All Blacks scrambled to a 6-3 victory. Australia went on to defeat them in Dublin and to win the World Cup. Four years ago, New Zealand triumphed 21-17 to complete a Tri-Nations clean sweep. Again, the Wallabies eliminated the All Blacks at the semifinal stage.
With such precedents, victory hardly seems a requirement for World Cup success.
What should be of more concern is that the All Blacks are not playing as well as they have in the past few seasons. None of their games this year has come close to matching, say, the sublime 45-6 demolition of France in 2004.
But there are explanations for this malaise, which should eliminate any creeping crisis in confidence.
The most obvious factor is the reconditioning programme that took 22 leading All Blacks out of much of the Super 14 competition. This was done to try to ensure they were at peak physical and mental fitness for the World Cup. It means, as some of the players have commented, that their performance has a degree of rustiness. That may well explain the lack of accuracy in the All Blacks' game, especially the number of passes that have, uncharacteristically, been dropped.
Questions have also been raised about team selection. One of the potential pitfalls of coach Graham Henry's rotation system is that it can complicate the identification of a top XV. This month, assistant coach Wayne Smith suggested, perhaps somewhat tongue in cheek, that there was uncertainty over the All Blacks' best players.
If so, much of that can be put down to a series of injuries. The team's stock of locks has been ravaged by long-term injuries to Jason Eaton and James Ryan and the short-term unavailability of Ali Williams, and the midfield has remained problematic in the absence of Conrad Smith.
Injuries are part and parcel of rugby. But the All Blacks can least afford them on the open-side flank and in the midfield, where there has been much experimentation since Tana Umaga's retirement.
Fingers will be crossed that Richie McCaw can soldier through the entire World Cup campaign.
In the midfield, the selectors have settled, for the moment at least, on Luke McAlister and Isaia Toeava as their top combination.
They say the team for tonight's test is their number one line-up. Rotation at the World Cup, starting with the first match, against Italy on September 8, will be designed to keep squad players up to scratch and to complete the rehabilitation of the likes of Smith and Williams.
But the team that runs out at Eden Park will be, essentially, the team that will carry New Zealand's hopes. It mixes experience with enterprise, and has played a hugely successful style of rugby for the past few years. It has been carefully primed for a World Cup, where its rivals' credentials are far more mediocre in many ways.
Why would the All Black players and their followers not be confident?