Editorial: Brash cannot afford to sit on his hands

COMMENT


The National Party leader, Don Brash, should be rethinking strategy in the wake of this month's series of public opinion polls. The latest of these, the Herald's quarterly DigiPoll survey, confirmed a disconcerting trend for both him and his party. National polled 36 per cent, compared to the Labour Party's 40.8 per cent, a dramatic turnaround from the June survey when it led by 44 to 36.1 per cent. Equally, Dr Brash suffered a blow in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, with Helen Clark trebling a relatively slim advantage to more than 15 points.

National has reason to be worried. This month's DigiPoll is a far cry from the highwater mark of 45.5 per cent reached immediately after Dr Brash's February speech on race relations at Orewa. Following that king hit, a series of similar policy speeches was promised. These were to cover law and order, welfare dependency, education and economic growth. Only one, that on law and order, has been delivered.

Instead, National decided to keep its policy powder dry until next year. It is to focus on the Government's shortcomings. This approach, so the theory runs, will unclutter the political landscape, making it easier to land telling blows. Equally, it will prevent the Government picking up and running with National policies, thereby minimising their impact.

The new approach has proved ineffectual. It might have worked against a Government that was proceeding determinedly with a raft of unpopular policies. Or a Government willing to court controversy. But the Prime Minister, her eye on re-election next year, is already set on steering clear of strife. Anything contentious is being quickly removed from the Government's books. Awkward legislation, such as that dealing with the foreshore and seabed and civil unions, will be off the agenda by the end of the year. More particularly, the public reaction to Dr Brash's race relations and law and order speeches has been heeded, and ministers are busily neutralising sensitive issues.

The response to Orewa was a wake-up call for the Government. It has been the trigger for a concerted bid to reclaim politics' middle ground. The latest polls reveal the extent of the Government's success. They also suggest that the next election, to be held by the end of next September at the latest, could be won and lost before this year is over. Quite simply, National's misfiring approach may leave it with too much ground to recoup, whatever the sense and sagacity of the policies it unveils next year.

National must, therefore, get back on the front foot by resurrecting its plan to deliver major speeches in priority policy areas. It was this approach - and the resonance of the Orewa speech and to a lesser extent that on law and order - that transformed its fortunes, so much so that it was able to maintain a comfortable lead over Labour throughout the winter. It could work again. At the very least it would be more effective than taking aim at an opponent, then finding there is not enough ammunition to riddle the target.

It would also place Dr Brash back in the spotlight. For much of the year he has preferred to stay away from Parliament, devoting himself to low-key speaking engagements throughout the country. The dwindling enthusiasm for him as Prime Minister suggests this also has not worked. Dr Brash clearly feels it is risky to become embroiled in the cut and thrust of Parliament, given his inexperience there. His main avenue for reaching the wider public must therefore lie in recapturing the resonance of the Orewa speech.

National may be tempted to think it should not panic. That a year is a long time in politics, and that much will happen before next September. But that would be a mistake. National must remember, first and foremost, how Dr Brash was able to transform its lot. And, if it is to be a weighty election-year force, it had better set about doing that again.